IAF’s 5th Gen Need Meets a US 4th Gen Pitch!

Indian Air Force Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh engaged with U.S. Air Force leaders during a visit to Nellis Air Force Base, Nevada, April 9, 2026. The visit focused on joint exercise opportunities and aligning modernization efforts to build a foundation for interoperability.

During his recent weeklong visit to the US starting April 6, the Indian Air Force (IAF) Chief of Air Staff (CAS), Air Chief Marshal (ACM) Amar Preet Singh, flew a familiarisation sortie in a Boeing F-15EX Eagle II fighter jet at Nellis Air Force Base in Nevada.

Routine Visit?

Officially, the CAS was on a routine exchange visit to foster deeper relations between the IAF and the U.S. Air Force (USAF). High-ranking air force officials from both nations routinely visit counterpart nations to discuss interoperability, joint training, shared strategic priorities in the Indo-Pacific, and modernisation.

In the past 15 years, four IAF Chiefs have made official visits to the US, as follows:

1. July 2013: Air Chief Marshal NAK Browne at the invitation of USAF Chief of Staff Gen. Mark A. Welsh III.

2. May 2015: Air Chief Marshal Arup Raha at the invitation of USAF Chief of Staff Gen. Mark A. Welsh III to strengthen bilateral defence cooperation.

3. September 26–28, 2017: Air Chief Marshal Birender Singh Dhanoa to attend the Pacific Air Chiefs Symposium in Hawaii.

4. April 6–13, 2026: Air Chief Marshal Amar Preet Singh to strengthen the India–US defence partnership and deepen cooperation between the two air forces.

The USAF Chief of Staff/Secretary of the Air Force has visited India three times in the same period, as follows:

1. August 2016: Secretary of the Air Force Deborah Lee James to discuss defence and trade cooperation.

2. February 1–7, 2018: Chief of Staff Gen. David L. Goldfein to discuss Indo-Pacific cooperation.

3. March 21, 2023: Secretary of the Air Force Frank Kendall to advance the U.S.–India Major Defense Partnership and bilateral security cooperation.

From the above, it is clear that exchange visits don't take place at predetermined intervals. Instead, they are based on invitations. As such, despite being labelled as routine visits, they are neither routine nor mere optics. There is always a strong undercurrent aimed at adding depth to the partnership. From the US point of view, CAS visits are either aimed at selling US weapons to India, aligning India more sharply with US unipolar global ambitions, or both.

Recent CAS Visit

Based on media reports, the invitation to ACM AP Singh to visit the US was likely aimed at laying down the modalities for surveillance by US MQ-9B SkyGuardian drones being sold to the IAF and the possible sharing of data.

The ACM's familiarisation sortie in a Boeing F-15EX Eagle II fighter jet was likely aimed at softening any IAF resistance to the purchase of the Boeing F-15EX fighter and its weapon systems.

During the MMRCA procurement process, the US had pitched its F-16 and F-18 fighters to the IAF, which ultimately chose the French Rafale fighter. However, due to irreconcilable differences over ToT, France and India could not finalise a contract. In 2018, the MoD placed an interim order for 36 Rafales and terminated further procurement under the MMRCA program.

Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) Program

The MoD then initiated the balance procurement of 110 fighters under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) program. On April 6, 2018, it released a fresh RFI stipulating that a maximum of 15 per cent of aircraft were to be procured in flyaway condition and 85 per cent would be manufactured in India based on transfer of technology (ToT) under “Make in India.” The RFI mandated the guarantee of 75 per cent availability of aircraft at all times.

The F-15EX was a late entrant in the MRFA program, which was initially confined to former MMRCA contestants.

New Delhi first showed interest in the F-15EX in October 2020, shortly after the U.S. Air Force awarded Boeing a nearly $1.2 billion contract to build the first lot of eight F-15EX advanced fighter jets to help the service meet its capacity requirements and add capability to its fighter fleet.

“There is a possibility that the F-15EX could be sold on a government-to-government basis,” a top government official familiar with the discussions told Hindustan Times at that time.

However, at that point, Boeing had not yet been licensed to sell the F-15EX abroad.

On January 28, 2021, the US government granted Boeing a marketing licence to offer the F-15EX Eagle II fighter jet directly to the Indian Air Force (IAF) under its MRFA procurement program.

It is not clear if Boeing’s pitch of the F-15EX conformed to the Indian MoD RFI of April 6, 2018, particularly regarding its willingness for ToT and local manufacture in India under “Make in India.”

Notably, the Boeing fighter was never offered for evaluation to the IAF, which raises doubts about the sincerity of the Boeing pitch.

Meanwhile, the IAF, having invested heavily in creating the maintenance and logistics infrastructure for Rafale, continued to display enthusiasm for additional procurement of the French fighter, which had performed creditably in Op Sindoor.

The CAS, in his interaction with the press on October 3, 2025, confirmed the IAF’s interest in acquiring additional Rafale fighter jets under the MRFA programme, stating:

“This is one of the options that is available with us because we had already done our own homework in terms of the earlier MMRCA contract. In that, we found Rafale to be the best aircraft suited for us amongst those candidates.”

However, he acknowledged that a decision in favour of Rafale would depend on French willingness to share manufacturing technology with India.

Alluding to the 2018 RFI that mandates ToT with the guarantee of 75 per cent availability of aircraft at all times, he said, “So whichever design house is ready to come up with the proposal to Make in India, to give us technology, give us more freedom, I think that design house should be chosen,” he added.

Rafale Procurement Go-Ahead

In January 2026, the Defence Procurement Board (DPB) reportedly gave its go-ahead to an Indian Air Force proposal to buy 114 French-origin Rafale jets.

Contract negotiations between India and France are underway. The DPB go-ahead has to be cleared by the DAC, headed by Defence Minister Rajnath Singh. Finally, before the contract is signed, it would need to be approved by the Cabinet Committee on Security.

Source Code Issues

Some unverified media reports suggest that the French government has refused to provide India with the source code for the Rafale’s Thales RBE2 AESA radar, the Modular Data Processing Unit (MDPU), and the SPECTRA electronic warfare suite.

These reports may sound alarming to many defence enthusiasts, but they need not be.

The IAF does not need the full source code of the Rafale. What it needs is programming access to the full source code. In an earlier analysis for the Eurasian Times, I explained in detail the difference.

A programming interface provides access to the underlying code through a layer of abstraction.

There is no reason for France to withhold full programming access to the Rafale source code, just as there is no reason for the IAF to ask for the transfer of the full source code.

It is the author’s belief that good negotiations can adequately seal the deal while safeguarding the interests of both France and India.

MRFA – A Near Done Deal

The IAF has made its choice clear in favour of Rafale. The renewed US pitch for the F-15EX aims to leverage the controversy wittingly or unwittingly created by the media over the source code. The IAF is unlikely to pursue a red-herring offer; notably, however, the US has made one—exposing its insincerity.

Need for Stealth Fighters

The IAF has officially projected to the MoD a need for 2–3 squadrons of a stealth fighter to address an emerging stopgap requirement. Ironically, what the US is ready to offer is not the F-35, but a Su-30MKI substitute that will drain billions from the IAF's capital expenditure over the next few years in acquiring the aircraft, creating a logistics and maintenance infrastructure, and procuring a whole new line of weapon systems.

The loss of four F-15EX fighters during the recent Iran war would be difficult for the IAF leadership to ignore were it inclined to change its mind at this late stage.

According to ANI, during ACM AP Singh’s visit, U.S. Air Force Chief of Staff Gen. Ken Wilsbach welcomed India’s procurement of the MQ-9B SkyGuardian drone. I wonder if the CAS found the endorsement reassuring, considering how easily Iran has been able to shoot down these very expensive drones.

In summary, what the IAF urgently needs is not the F-15EX, but an upgrade to the highly potent BrahMos-wielding Su-30MKI, which can also be adapted for launching Indian-developed hypersonic aeroballistic missiles in the future.

Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. First published on Thumkar.

The Rafale Deal: A Necessary Compromise Explained

The recent ANI report states that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is poised to begin negotiations on a ₹3.25 lakh crore deal to procure 114 Rafale fighter jets from France.

According to the ANI report, the indigenous content in the aircraft would be limited to around 30 per cent. There is no additional transfer of technology (ToT) commitment beyond this 30 per cent indigenous content.

The source codes will remain exclusively with the French side.

Widespread Consternation

There is widespread consternation on account of the following:

1. Rafales manufactured in India will have only 30 per cent indigenous content.

2. The deal encompasses no additional transfer of technology.

3. The Indian Air Force (IAF) will not receive the source code for integrating indigenous weapon systems without French assistance.

“What happened to Make in India?” is the lament. Why cannot India look for an alternative? Russia, for example, has offered full transfer of technology and local production for the Su-57!

In the following paragraphs, I will place the proposed deal and its limitations in the correct perspective. We begin with the imperative for the new deal.

TINA – There Is No Alternative

The Indian Air Force proposes to acquire additional Rafales under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme. The IAF has also proposed that the government acquire two to three squadrons of a stealth fighter to plug the operational gap that will exist until at least one squadron of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is inducted.

These two acquisitions are proceeding on parallel tracks. One cannot substitute the other.

The MRFA programme is a follow-on to the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) programme. The Ministry of Defence initiated procurement under the MRFA programme in April 2018. Aircraft that competed under the MRFA programme included the Gripen NG, MiG-35, Su-35, and F/A-18E/F.

Under the MRFA procurement track, there is no real alternative to the Rafale for two compelling reasons:

1. The IAF evaluated the competing fighters during the MMRCA programme and concluded that the Rafale was the best option.

2. The IAF has already invested heavily in infrastructure, training, and logistics to operate and maintain the Rafale.

The Chief of the Air Staff (CAS), Air Chief Marshal A. P. Singh, in his interaction with the press on October 3, 2025, confirmed the IAF’s interest in acquiring additional Rafale fighter jets under the MRFA programme, stating:

“This is one of the options that is available with us because we had already done our own homework in terms of the earlier MMRCA contract. In that, we found Rafale to be the best aircraft suited for us amongst those candidates.”

“Now, whether it is Rafale or something else, it really doesn't matter, but yes, Rafale is easy to absorb,” he added.

MRFA and LCA Mk-2

Given France’s decision to cap transfer of technology at 30 per cent, and considering that the IAF has already waited eight years for the MRFA programme to materialise, could the IAF wait longer in support of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk-2?

The problem is that, based on past Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) delivery records, it will be quite some time before the LCA Mk-2 project takes off and reaches an operationally viable stage. A protracted wait would further erode IAF's squadron strength.

What must be clearly understood is that raising or re-raising squadrons to full operational status, after they have been number plated, is a process that takes years.

Adding to the uncertainty, the LCA Mk-2 will be powered by the General Electric (GE) F414 engine, increasing India’s vulnerability to United States pressure or sanctions.

Limited Transfer of Technology

During the interaction referred to earlier, the Chief of the Air Staff notably expressed his reservations regarding French unwillingness to transfer technology for local manufacture of the Rafale to the extent desired by India.

The 2018 Request for Information (RFI) for the MRFA programme mandates transfer of technology, along with a guarantee of 75 per cent aircraft availability at all times.

“So whichever design house is ready to come up with the proposal to Make in India, to give us technology, give us more freedom, I think that design house should be chosen,” he said.

Viewed pragmatically, the proposal is worth consideration despite limited ToT. Higher percentage of technology transfer could prove counter productive. Indigenous content beyond what Indian industry can deliver quickly would only lead to delays and mutual recrimination.

Whatever Indian industry can manufacture rapidly and reliably should be made in India; the rest should be imported.

DRDO and HAL have already designed and developed two fighter aircraft—the HF-24 Marut and the Tejas. They do not need 100 per cent technology transfer. What they need is targeted transfer of technology to plug specific capability gaps, such as the inability to develop aircraft engines capable of sustaining higher turbine inlet temperatures. Such technology transfers should be negotiated separately, rather than being tied to acquisitions that are critical for maintaining the operational readiness of the Army, Navy, and Air Force.

After all, the acquisition of additional Rafales is intended to arrest the decline in fighter squadron strength, which is currently reported to be 29 squadrons against an authorised strength of 42.

Source Code Issues

According to the ANI report, the Indian side is also seeking French support to enable the integration of Indian weapons and indigenous systems into the aircraft under the government-to-government deal.

However, the source codes will remain with the French side.

It may be recalled that during negotiations for the 2015 deal to acquire 36 Rafale F3R fighters, the IAF had sought access to operational source codes from Dassault Aviation and Thales Avionics for the mission avionics and the fly-by-wire flight control system, in order to retain a “unilateral upgrade” capability.

Access to the source code would have enabled the IAF and HAL to implement mid-life weapons and avionics upgrades by leveraging open architecture, without having to revert to Dassault and Thales.

The ANI report appears to confirm that the Rafale variant now proposed is the F4 variant, not the F3 variant acquired earlier, and that the source code architecture of the F4 has changed.

Rafale F4 Variant

The Rafale F4 incorporates significant upgrades, including:

1. A new Thales software-defined radio (CONTACT), offering improved security, enhanced data links, and integrated civil and military satellite communication capability.

2. An improved RBE2 radar capable of detecting mobile ground targets.

3. An upgraded infrared optronic system.

4. An enhanced SPECTRA self-protection suite, with expanded low- and high-frequency coverage to counter future threats.

5. New weapons, including a mid-life-upgraded SCALP cruise missile, MBDA’s MICA-NG air-to-air missile, and a new version of the AASM air-to-ground weapon. The MICA-NG offers longer range and improved detection and acquisition capability.

6. Predictive maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) capability to improve dispatch reliability.

It was earlier reported that the French Ministry of the Armed Forces had publicly confirmed that India is pursuing a plan to acquire 90 Rafale F4 fighters, with an additional option for 24 Rafale F5 aircraft.

Conclusion

The proposed acquisition of 114 additional Rafales is essentially a continuation of the earlier deal under which India acquired 36 aircraft.

In September 2018, following sustained criticism of the government over the limited purchase, then Raksha Mantri Nirmala Sitharaman clarified that the induction was restricted to 36 aircraft because the Indian Air Force’s infrastructure and technical capacity did not permit a larger induction at the time.

The induction of just two squadrons was the outcome of an emergency purchase, she explained:

“Air Force … will tell you that for any emergency-based induction, it is always two squadrons and not more than that.”

Notably, even under the current proposal, 12–18 Rafale jets are expected to be acquired in fly-away condition, most likely because the IAF is inducting the Rafale F4 variant.

Finally, it is worth noting that strategic imports from France have historically come with no political strings attached—albeit often with an ever-increasing price tag. France also remains the only fighter aircraft supplier capable of resisting sustained United States pressure.

Update on January 16, 2026:

My discussion with Abhijat Shekhar on the proposed Rafale deal on Navbharat Times. Some plain speaking and rabble rousing! 1. Why does HAL pay an increasing amount as dividend to the GoI every year? Why not invest the amount in R&D? In the past three financial years, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) paid the following dividend amounts to the Government of India (GoI): FY 2022-23: ₹1,257 crore FY 2023-24: ₹1,413 crore FY 2024-25: ₹1,820 crore 2. For 25 years, MoD / IAF have made no serious attempt to upgrade Su-30MKI. In contrast, with the Rafale, it plans to quickly move from F3R to F4 to F5 variants. 3. The reasons why Dassault will not and can not part with the full source code of the Rafale. Dassault is not exploiting an Indian weakness, it is protecting it is safeguarding its own competitive edge. 4. DRDO appears more interested in adding to the number of projects that it is working on rather than focusing on the projects that are most critical to India's defence requirements. Is it more focused on increasing its establishment, rather than delivering on its promise?

Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. First published on Thumkar.