Wednesday, January 14, 2026

The Rafale Deal: A Necessary Compromise Explained




The recent ANI report states that the Ministry of Defence (MoD) is poised to begin negotiations on a ₹3.25 lakh crore deal to procure 114 Rafale fighter jets from France.


According to the ANI report, the indigenous content in the aircraft would be limited to around 30 per cent. There is no additional transfer of technology (ToT) commitment beyond this 30 per cent indigenous content.


The source codes will remain exclusively with the French side.


Widespread Consternation


There is widespread consternation on account of the following:


1. Rafales manufactured in India will have only 30 per cent indigenous content.


2. The deal encompasses no additional transfer of technology.


3. The Indian Air Force (IAF) will not receive the source code for integrating indigenous weapon systems without French assistance.


“What happened to Make in India?” is the lament. Why cannot India look for an alternative? Russia, for example, has offered full transfer of technology and local production for the Su-57!


In the following paragraphs, I will place the proposed deal and its limitations in the correct perspective. We begin with the imperative for the new deal.


TINA – There Is No Alternative


The Indian Air Force proposes to acquire additional Rafales under the Multi-Role Fighter Aircraft (MRFA) programme. The IAF has also proposed that the government acquire two to three squadrons of a stealth fighter to plug the operational gap that will exist until at least one squadron of the Advanced Medium Combat Aircraft (AMCA) is inducted.


These two acquisitions are proceeding on parallel tracks. One cannot substitute the other.


The MRFA programme is a follow-on to the Medium Multi-Role Combat Aircraft (MMRCA) programme. The Ministry of Defence initiated procurement under the MRFA programme in April 2018. Aircraft that competed under the MRFA programme included the Gripen NG, MiG-35, Su-35, and F/A-18E/F.


Under the MRFA procurement track, there is no real alternative to the Rafale for two compelling reasons:


1. The IAF evaluated the competing fighters during the MMRCA programme and concluded that the Rafale was the best option.


2. The IAF has already invested heavily in infrastructure, training, and logistics to operate and maintain the Rafale.


The Chief of the Air Staff (CAS), Air Chief Marshal A. P. Singh, in his interaction with the press on October 3, 2025, confirmed the IAF’s interest in acquiring additional Rafale fighter jets under the MRFA programme, stating:


“This is one of the options that is available with us because we had already done our own homework in terms of the earlier MMRCA contract. In that, we found Rafale to be the best aircraft suited for us amongst those candidates.”


“Now, whether it is Rafale or something else, it really doesn't matter, but yes, Rafale is easy to absorb,” he added.


MRFA and LCA Mk-2


Given France’s decision to cap transfer of technology at 30 per cent, and considering that the IAF has already waited eight years for the MRFA programme to materialise, could the IAF wait longer in support of the Light Combat Aircraft (LCA) Mk-2?


The problem is that, based on past Defence Research and Development Organisation (DRDO) and Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) delivery records, it will be quite some time before the LCA Mk-2 project takes off and reaches an operationally viable stage. A protracted wait would further erode IAF's squadron strength.


What must be clearly understood is that raising or re-raising squadrons to full operational status, after they have been number plated, is a process that takes years.


Adding to the uncertainty, the LCA Mk-2 will be powered by the General Electric (GE) F414 engine, increasing India’s vulnerability to United States pressure or sanctions.


Limited Transfer of Technology


During the interaction referred to earlier, the Chief of the Air Staff notably expressed his reservations regarding French unwillingness to transfer technology for local manufacture of the Rafale to the extent desired by India.


The 2018 Request for Information (RFI) for the MRFA programme mandates transfer of technology, along with a guarantee of 75 per cent aircraft availability at all times.


“So whichever design house is ready to come up with the proposal to Make in India, to give us technology, give us more freedom, I think that design house should be chosen,” he said.


Viewed pragmatically, the proposal is worth consideration despite limited ToT. Higher percentage of technology transfer could prove counter productive. Indigenous content beyond what Indian industry can deliver quickly would only lead to delays and mutual recrimination.


Whatever Indian industry can manufacture rapidly and reliably should be made in India; the rest should be imported.


DRDO and HAL have already designed and developed two fighter aircraft—the HF-24 Marut and the Tejas. They do not need 100 per cent technology transfer. What they need is targeted transfer of technology to plug specific capability gaps, such as the inability to develop aircraft engines capable of sustaining higher turbine inlet temperatures. Such technology transfers should be negotiated separately, rather than being tied to acquisitions that are critical for maintaining the operational readiness of the Army, Navy, and Air Force.


After all, the acquisition of additional Rafales is intended to arrest the decline in fighter squadron strength, which is currently reported to be 29 squadrons against an authorised strength of 42.


Source Code Issues


According to the ANI report, the Indian side is also seeking French support to enable the integration of Indian weapons and indigenous systems into the aircraft under the government-to-government deal.


However, the source codes will remain with the French side.


It may be recalled that during negotiations for the 2015 deal to acquire 36 Rafale F3R fighters, the IAF had sought access to operational source codes from Dassault Aviation and Thales Avionics for the mission avionics and the fly-by-wire flight control system, in order to retain a “unilateral upgrade” capability.


Access to the source code would have enabled the IAF and HAL to implement mid-life weapons and avionics upgrades by leveraging open architecture, without having to revert to Dassault and Thales.


The ANI report appears to confirm that the Rafale variant now proposed is the F4 variant, not the F3 variant acquired earlier, and that the source code architecture of the F4 has changed.


Rafale F4 Variant


The Rafale F4 incorporates significant upgrades, including:


1. A new Thales software-defined radio (CONTACT), offering improved security, enhanced data links, and integrated civil and military satellite communication capability.


2. An improved RBE2 radar capable of detecting mobile ground targets.


3. An upgraded infrared optronic system.


4. An enhanced SPECTRA self-protection suite, with expanded low- and high-frequency coverage to counter future threats.


5. New weapons, including a mid-life-upgraded SCALP cruise missile, MBDA’s MICA-NG air-to-air missile, and a new version of the AASM air-to-ground weapon. The MICA-NG offers longer range and improved detection and acquisition capability.


6. Predictive maintenance, repair, and overhaul (MRO) capability to improve dispatch reliability.


It was earlier reported that the French Ministry of the Armed Forces had publicly confirmed that India is pursuing a plan to acquire 90 Rafale F4 fighters, with an additional option for 24 Rafale F5 aircraft.


Conclusion


The proposed acquisition of 114 additional Rafales is essentially a continuation of the earlier deal under which India acquired 36 aircraft.


In September 2018, following sustained criticism of the government over the limited purchase, then Raksha Mantri Nirmala Sitharaman clarified that the induction was restricted to 36 aircraft because the Indian Air Force’s infrastructure and technical capacity did not permit a larger induction at the time.


The induction of just two squadrons was the outcome of an emergency purchase, she explained:


“Air Force … will tell you that for any emergency-based induction, it is always two squadrons and not more than that.”


Notably, even under the current proposal, 12–18 Rafale jets are expected to be acquired in fly-away condition, most likely because the IAF is inducting the Rafale F4 variant.


Finally, it is worth noting that strategic imports from France have historically come with no political strings attached—albeit often with an ever-increasing price tag. France also remains the only fighter aircraft supplier capable of resisting sustained United States pressure.


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