RUSI’s Rafale Downing Story: Big Claims, Zero Forensics

Western Think Tanks Are Now Disinformation Banks Here is a classic example of Western disinformation and deception. In a recent (January 2026) report, the Royal United Services Institute (RUSI), a UK-based defence think tank, relying exclusively on PAF claims, concluded that during Operation Sindoor a PAF J-10CE fighter downed an IAF Rafale using a PL-15 missile fired from approximately 200 km away. The RUSI report also draws on speculation by unnamed US officials, as reported by Reuters, that the IAF underestimated the range of the PL-15, believing the PAF was equipped only with the 140-km-range export variant of the missile. However, just before the start of Operation Sindoor, China had reportedly surreptitiously transferred PL-15 missiles with a 200–300 km range (depending on launch height) from PLAAF inventory to the PAF. The fact is, merely having range does not assure an air-to-air missile of a kill. IAF Rafales are equipped with the SPECTRA self-protection suite, which includes active RF jamming and active cancellation jamming to reduce RCS. One would expect a serious think-tank report to examine how the PL-15 allegedly penetrated the Rafale’s electronic defences. The RUSI report does not mention whether the Rafale took evasive action. Nor does it claim access to PL-15 cockpit displays or supporting radar recordings that would substantiate the PAF’s assertion. An analysis based on a single source, unsupported by evidence and built on speculation, is a bogus analysis—as RUSI itself would know. Yet it is presented as fact. The intent is clear: to seed doubt in Indian minds and sap the confidence of the Indian public.