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China will produce over 100,000 humanoid robots in 2026, according to Gan Xiaobin, Deputy Director of the Department of Science and Technology under the Chinese Ministry of Industry and Information Technology. He was speaking at a press conference in Shanghai. (via TASS)
"Large language models, AI agents, and AI chips are advancing at a rapid pace. We expect humanoid robot output to exceed 100,000 units this year," Gan Xiaobin noted.
In February, CNBC reported that the US has started testing two humanoid combat robots in Ukraine, marking the first known deployment of humanoid robots in a combat zone. Developed by San Francisco-based startup Foundation Future Industries, the robots, named Phantom-1, were deployed to Ukraine for frontline logistics and reconnaissance.
Foundation Future has secured approximately $24 million in Pentagon research contracts (from the U.S. Army, Navy, and Air Force) to test the humanoids.
Phantom-1 is roughly 5'9"–5'11" tall and weighs 176–180 lb. It is designed to use human weapons and infrastructure such as doors, stairs, and vehicles. It can lift approximately 90 lb and perform physical tasks in complex or high-risk environments. The robot has five-fingered hands, camera-based vision, and an LLM-driven autonomy system that supports both independent operation and supervised teleoperation.
Foundation Future aims to send an upgraded humanoid variant—Phantom-2—to Ukraine later this year.
China is also actively experimenting with humanoids for military applications, including teleoperated demonstrations of complex battlefield tasks.
Operational Fielding Timeline
If current technological progress continues:
Over the next one to three years, platforms like Phantom are likely to be upgraded and fielded in supervised autonomous or teleoperated combat roles. They will undertake high-risk tasks such as urban clearing, resupply under fire, and acting as decoys that draw enemy fire or absorb risk.
It is plausible that, starting as early as 2028—or perhaps as late as 2035—armed humanoid robots will actively participate in direct combat.
Between 2035 and 2045, fully autonomous squad-level humanoid "soldiers" will likely begin replacing human infantry in many battlefield roles.
Why Humanoid Robots?
There is a good reason why robotic soldiers will initially take humanoid form. Battlefield equipment—including transport and combat vehicles, firearms, and drone-launching systems—is designed for human use. Humanoids will be able to operate all equipment developed for humans. Interchangeability between humans and humanoid robots will be critical during the transition period, which could last for decades.
Challenges Persist
Humanoid robots outperform humans in many aspects of soldiering. They possess greater strength, higher load-carrying capacity, superior endurance, greater environmental tolerance, and higher precision. They can also be deployed in numbers limited only by manufacturing capacity. Most importantly, robots completely trounce humans when it comes to expendability.
However, humans outperform robots in mobility over rough terrain, adaptability, judgment, and field-acquired dexterity. As long as food and water are available, humans also exhibit far greater endurance than electrically powered robots.
It is interesting to note that companies developing humanoid robots worldwide are focused on improving endurance, fall recovery, rough-terrain mobility, and dexterity.
Humanoid Vulnerabilities
The vulnerability of humanoid robots to cyberattacks and spoofing, the logistics infrastructure required to support their operation, and their limitations in leadership and command roles will likely require humans and humanoids to operate as teams in the near future—and perhaps even in the more distant future.
However, there can be little doubt that deploying humanoid soldiers will provide a nation with an overwhelming military advantage, particularly if they can be upgraded more rapidly than those of an adversary.
It is also possible that humanoids, together with quadruped robots and UGVs, will never evolve beyond being sophisticated weapon systems that reduce the number of humans required on the battlefield. They may significantly reduce the demand for human soldiers, but they are unlikely to eliminate it entirely.
To some extent, the widespread use of drones has already reduced the number of soldiers required to hold a front in the ongoing conflict in Ukraine.
