Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Ukraine. Show all posts

Friday, September 4, 2026

Russia’s Coca-Cola Strike: Retaliation, Deterrence or Coincidence?



During the past year or so, the US and its Western allies have increasingly become directly involved in Ukraine's long-range strikes on Russia, including through the provision of targeting, intelligence and navigation-related information for Ukrainian long-range strike systems.


Russia now appears to be responding in kind by striking US and Western commercial interests in Ukraine. The apparent objectives are twofold: retaliation for Western involvement in attacks on Russian commercial and economic interests, and deterrence of further Western investment in Ukraine.


On September 3, Russian drones struck the Coca-Cola Beverages Ukraine plant in Velyka Dymerka, in Kyiv region. The facility is Coca-Cola's only production site in Ukraine and one of Europe's larger bottling plants.


Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy described the strike as “a clear Russian signal to America,” arguing that Russia could not be unaware that it was striking an American-owned facility. 


In its account of the September 3 strikes, the Russian MoD did not specifically identify the Coca-Cola facility. Instead, it broadly claimed to have struck “enterprises of the military-industrial and fuel-energy complexes” involved in producing missiles, drones and components, supplying fuel to Ukrainian forces, and logistics facilities allegedly handling dual-use goods and UAV components.


Reports from Ukraine said a drone struck warehouses containing finished products, causing a large fire. No casualties were reported.


The Russian account therefore leaves the purpose of the Coca-Cola strike deliberately ambiguous. If the facility was intentionally selected because it belongs to an American company, the MoD's broader description provides Moscow with plausible deniability.


Coca-Cola and the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine said the company was assessing the damage with Ukrainian authorities and that employee safety remained the priority.


Not the First


The September 3 strike was not the first Russian attack on US commercial interests in Ukraine. A May New York Times investigation documented Russian strikes since mid-2025 on facilities linked to Coca-Cola, Cargill, Boeing, Mondelez, Philip Morris, Flex and Bunge.


Representatives of several companies told visiting US senators that they believed the attacks were deliberate. Senator Jeanne Shaheen said the businesses believed they were being targeted intentionally. Andy Hunder of the American Chamber of Commerce in Ukraine argued that Russia was attempting to deter further American investment.


There is, however, another plausible explanation. Some Ukrainian business figures and observers believe the attacks are part of a broader Russian campaign against Ukraine's industrial and logistical infrastructure, with the nationality of the company being incidental. In that interpretation, US companies are being hit because their facilities happen to be part of Ukraine's economic infrastructure.


Zelenskyy's “a clear Russian signal to America” characterisation could well have been a "cheeky" interpretation as it could well be possible that Ukrainian forces were using Coca Cola warehouses for military purposes thinking that Russia would not dare to strike them. 


The most plausible explanation may be that both motives are operating simultaneously: Russia is attempting to weaken Ukraine's economy while also signalling to Washington and other Western capitals that their commercial assets in Ukraine are not immune from the consequences of Western involvement in the war.


The Coca-Cola plant's highly visible American branding would have made it an especially potent symbolic target.


At the same time, the use of plausible deniability is important. There is no publicly available evidence establishing conclusively that Russia deliberately selected the Coca-Cola plant because it was American-owned. The strike can therefore be explained as an attack on Ukrainian economic infrastructure, even if its selection was in fact deliberate.


US Reaction


The US government has so far not publicly reacted to the September 3 Coca-Cola strike. Earlier in 2026, Washington's response to similar incidents was muted; a State Department spokesperson said the US had urged both sides to refrain from targeting American business interests.


Some US lawmakers and analysts have criticised this posture, arguing that Washington's restraint could establish a precedent in which American commercial assets in a war zone can be struck with little consequence.


But a more belligerent US response would carry its own problem: Washington would have to confront, rather than brush under the carpet, the extent of US involvement in enabling Ukrainian strikes deep inside Russia.


Doing so could turn attacks on American commercial interests from an uncomfortable side-effect of the war into a direct US-Russia confrontation—and escalate an already dangerous conflict considerably further.


Tuesday, June 9, 2026

Ukraine's Brave 1: The Autonomous Interceptor Built to Hunt Jet-Powered Gerans

Screen grab from Militarnyi video on YouTube embedded below


Ukraine is all set to field its first autonomous interceptor drone — the Brave 1. So far, Ukraine has developed and deployed FPV interceptor drones only.


The Brave 1 has successfully undergone combat tests in the Kharkiv region with a unit of the 12th Special Forces Group.


A video posted on the Militarnyi YouTube channel allegedly shows the drone intercepting an unidentified Geran variant and several other drones.


Brave 1 Features


The tube-launched Brave 1 features an aft-mounted pusher propeller and an optronic sensor in the nose.


The drone has a conventional airframe, making it aerodynamically more efficient than the Sting. The latter, which currently serves as the workhorse interceptor drone for Ukrainian forces, is an FPV drone with a bullet-like fuselage and a quadcopter architecture. The drone was operationally fielded around mid-2025.


Quadcopter drones have limited maximum speed because of the higher drag associated with the design. This limitation makes them ineffective against high-speed, jet-powered Geran one-way attack drones.


The conventional airframe of the Brave 1 would allow it to achieve much higher speeds. It is likely that, in a dive, it would be capable of intercepting a jet-powered Geran-4 or Geran-5.


Another limitation of the Sting is that it is an FPV kinetic interceptor that must be piloted into its target by a ground-based operator using an RF communication link. Signals from this link can be detected by adversary EW sensors, and the location of the pilot can be extrapolated through triangulation.


Russian forces reportedly exploit this vulnerability by pairing Geran-2 drones. When a Sting interceptor is launched against one Geran-2, a second Geran autonomously uses onboard sensors to locate and dive onto the Sting operator.


Interception Autonomy


The next generation of interceptor drones is being designed to operate autonomously using AI-powered machine vision, both during the day and at night.


These drones can independently detect, track, and engage targets without continuous human involvement. As a result, they do not require a vulnerable control channel that can be jammed or spoofed. They can home in on targets even when SATNAV and communication signals are jammed


In effect, they are launch-and-scoot weapons that remove the operator from the battlefield and significantly reduce operational risk.


Merops AS-3


Besides the Sting, Ukrainian forces use the US-supplied Merops AS-3 drone to intercept Geran drones.


The Merops AS-3 Surveyor is a mobile, truck-portable counter-drone system comprising:


  1. Radar and electro-optical sensors for detection and tracking
  2. A ground control and command station
  3. Pneumatic or mobile launch platforms
  4. A fleet of Surveyor interceptor drones


The AS-3 features a conventional fixed-wing airframe and AI-based autonomy. The drone is cued and initially guided using the sensors of the Merops system. For terminal guidance, it uses onboard IR and RF sensors, as well as AI-based machine vision. 


With a maximum speed of 280 km/h, the drone outpaces Russian Gerans more easily than the Sting.


Although highly effective, the Merops system relies heavily on ground-based infrastructure that can be located and attacked. Also, the system is expensive. It is currently priced at around $15,000.


Russian Yolka Interceptor Drone


At the beginning of the year, Russia fielded its Yolka interceptor drone, which featured the autonomy of next-generation drones and stole a march on the capabilities of the Ukrainian Sting.


The Yolka uses a hybrid quadcopter configuration augmented by X-planform lift-generating wings.


The Yolka is remarkably simple to use. It is launched from a handheld pistol-like device. The operator points the drone toward a target and launches it as soon as the drone begins to autonomously track the target. The UAV is fitted with electro-optical (daylight camera) and infrared sensors, along with an onboard AI processor known as the "Igolka" module.


The Yolka's portability, ease of use, and very low cost (approximately $500) enable widespread and distributed deployment.


Conclusion


Nothing definitive has been published about the guidance architecture of the Brave 1. However, since the drone is launched vertically from a tube, it is likely initially cued to its target by a ground-based radar sensor, as is the case with the Merops system. Mid-course guidance likely relies on AI-powered fusion of ground-radar and onboard optical-sensor inputs.


It is likely that Ukraine has developed the Brave 1 interceptor primarily to counter the threat posed by Russian high-speed jet-powered drones such as the Geran-3, Geran-4, and Geran-5.


The Geran-3 features a Geran-2 fuselage fitted with a jet engine.


The Geran-4 is an adaptation of the Geran-2 airframe optimized for jet propulsion. It features a compact jet engine mounted beneath the aft fuselage. The design is aerodynamically more efficient, resulting in greater range and speed.


The Geran-5, however, is a clean-sheet design. Russian forces first used the drone in January. The catapult-launched drone resembles a subsonic cruise missile, with a tubular fuselage and fold-out wings.


Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate believes the Russian Armed Forces are actively ramping up their inventory of jet-powered drones to an extent where 50 percent of the long range one way attack drones launched at Ukrainian targets will be jet powered. 


In an earlier post, I discussed the Molniya, a second-generation Russian autonomous interceptor drone that retains the operational simplicity of the Yolka interceptor while offering greater capability through longer range, higher speed, and a warhead. It can reach speeds of up to 330 km/h.


One possible shortcoming of the Molniya is its quadcopter configuration. However, Russia may have deliberately chosen this design because it is also simultaneously developing the Molniya-P interceptor drone with a conventional airframe.


With the Brave 1, Ukrainian forces may well have narrowed the gap in interceptor-drone capabilities between the two nations thanks to its conventional airframe and the higher speeds that configuration enables.


Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. First published on Thumkar.

Tuesday, May 26, 2026

In Ukraine, US-Supplied Drones Strangulate Russian Supply Lines, Blunt Geran Threat

 

ChatGPT Image

Russia has steadily lost its advantage in drone warfare in Ukraine and is now reeling under the onslaught of Western-supplied drones in general and US-supplied drones in particular.

At one point, Russian innovations — such as Lancet and Kub kamikaze drones, fiber-optic cable-controlled kamikaze drones, and inexpensive long-range one-way attack drones — had given Russian forces a significant edge over Ukraine.

Now, not only has the Russian edge been blunted, Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative using interceptor and strike drones featuring advanced US technology.

The sophistication of US-supplied drones has put Russian forces on the back foot and brought the Russian offensive in Donbas to a grinding halt.

Among the several US companies that have developed potent drones for use by Ukrainian forces is Perennial Autonomy, a company owned by Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google.

Two drones developed by Perennial Autonomy are giving Russian forces a hard time — the Merops interceptor drone and the Hornet strike drone.

Merops AS-3 Surveyor

The Merops AS-3 Surveyor has reportedly proven effective in intercepting Russian drones.

The fixed-wing Surveyor interceptor was first combat-tested in Ukraine around June 2024. By late 2025, it had reportedly achieved over 1,900 intercepts. In some sectors, it is claimed to have brought down roughly 40% of Russian Geran drones. Recent reports claim 4,000 successful Russian drone interceptions.

The propeller-driven drone is roughly three feet long and is capable of attaining a maximum speed of 280 km/h.

It can be launched pneumatically from the bed of a standard pickup truck alongside a ground control station. The entire system is highly portable and requires minimal training.

Its success in Ukraine reportedly prompted the US Army to order 13,000 units shortly after the US and Israel launched an unprovoked large-scale aerial attack on Iran on February 28, to counter Iranian Shahed drone barrages.

The drone is currently priced at $15,000, but its cost is projected to fall below $10,000.

The Surveyor is an effective interceptor on account of its greater autonomy, speed, and jam resistance. The drone features electro-optical, thermal, and RF sensors. More importantly, it can fuse inputs from its different sensors into highly effective machine vision. Using AI-based autonomy and machine vision, it can home in on targets even when SATNAV and communication signals are jammed. With its maximum speed of 280 km/h, the drone outpaces Russian Gerans.

Its 2 kg fragmentation warhead increases the probability of a successful interception. Combined with its $15,000 price tag, it offers an optimized cost-to-kill ratio.


Hornet Strike Drone

The effectiveness of US interceptor drones has substantially relieved the financial and operational burden on Western-supplied Ukrainian air defence (AD) systems deployed to defend Ukrainian airspace, despite the adverse cost-to-kill ratio resulting from the use of high-cost interceptor missiles to destroy low-cost strike drones such as the Geran. More effective interception of Russian attack drones will reduce Russia’s ability to degrade Ukraine's warfighting potential. It would allow Ukraine to continue the fight much longer.

The introduction of the US-supplied Hornet strike drone has yielded a more immediate gain. Along with other factors, Hornets can be credited with bringing the Russian offensive in Donbas to a crawl along the line of contact, and even to a complete halt in some sectors.

The Hornet drone is estimated to cost less than €5,000. Its takeoff weight is approximately 15 kg, its wingspan 2.2 m, and its fuselage length 1.4 m. Its maximum payload reaches 5 kg.

The technological features that make the Hornet potent include stealth, long range, autonomy, navigational accuracy, and EW resilience.

Stealth & Range

The drone uses a conventional airframe that allows RF signature reduction. It also cruises at low altitudes, sometimes extremely low altitudes.

It mostly operates at altitudes of up to 200 m but has reportedly been seen flying as low as 5 m.

It is claimed to have a maximum range of 160 km.

Navigational Accuracy

The drone autonomously tracks along adversary logistics routes using its optical sensors, identifying and prioritizing targets.

It features two daylight cameras — forward-facing and downward-facing — that facilitate terrain orientation, altitude stabilization, target recognition, and target lock-on.

When it detects a target, the system seeks operator clearance to attack. Once clearance is granted, the low-audio-signature drone autonomously dives onto or approaches the target, giving the adversary little reaction time.

EW Resilience

Tracking along logistics routes enhances both navigational accuracy and resilience to EW.

The drone’s built-in autonomy minimizes communication with the operator.

The drone is controlled using the following non-traditional protocols and frequencies:

1. Radio communication in non-standard frequency bands of 1800–1900 MHz, 2000–2300 MHz, and 3300–3800 MHz

2. Starlink or MESH networking

3. LoRa (Long Range)

A large number of operationally deployed Russian EW systems cannot disrupt the non-standard frequency bands used by the Hornet.

Starlink and MESH networks are inherently resilient to jamming.

The LoRa protocol facilitates the transmission of small amounts of data over long distances using very little power. The fact that Russian forces use DMR (Digital Mobile Radio) systems for tactical communication complicates their option of jamming the LoRa spectrum.

Hornet’s SATNAV module can simultaneously receive and process signals from all major satellite constellations — GPS, GLONASS, BeiDou, and Galileo. It can additionally leverage SBAS support to improve signal accuracy.

The drone’s unique communication architecture reportedly enables positioning accuracy of 1.5 m RMS in the absence of EW jamming, significantly exceeding that of previous-generation SATNAV modules.

It has been reported that Ukrainian forces leveraged the accuracy of Hornet drones to destroy the support poles and framework holding protective nets in place over a logistics supply route, collapsing the barriers and opening the routes to follow-on attacks.

Technologically, Russian forces have no effective counter to the Surveyor interceptor drone except making their Gerans fly faster. As far as attack drones are concerned, there is evidence to suggest that Russia is attempting to seize back the initiative with its Geran-5 jet-powered drone — a clean-sheet design bearing no physical resemblance to earlier Geran variants. According to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, the Russian Armed Forces plan to ramp up production of jet-powered drones and increase their share to 50% of all long-range drones launched.

Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. First published on Thumkar.

Wednesday, December 3, 2025

Beating the Heat: How Anti-Thermal Cloaks Are Changing Drone Warfare

Russian troops reportedly used anti-thermal cloaks to evade detection by surveillance drones equipped with thermal-imaging (TI) sensors, allowing them to penetrate Ukrainian lines in Krasnoarmeysk at night.

The troops entered Ukrainian-held territory despite the presence of enemy drones, ambushed equipment and personnel, and mined roads to cut off supply lines—leaving the adversary confused and disorganised.

The cloaks—nicknamed “anti-drone raincoats” due to their poncho-like design and waterproof qualities—incorporate insulating and reflective materials such as nylon with embedded aluminium or silver particles, or layered Mylar (a reflective foil-like material) sandwiched between fabric.

These “raincoats” prevent the escape of infrared (IR) radiation emitted by the human body, which TI sensors detect as heat signatures. Their outer surface remains close to ambient temperature, reducing the thermal contrast needed for TI detection.

They are particularly effective during “thermal crossover” periods, when air and ground temperatures are nearly equal. This typically occurs after daybreak and sunset, as well as in rain or fog. During the day, the raincoats can also be effective when troops remain close to objects such as rocks or vegetation that are warmer than the surrounding air.


Thursday, June 20, 2024

Global Realignments Challenge India's Fence Sitting




The recent visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea and Vietnam signalled a tectonic shift in global alignments as a consequence of the ongoing Russian Special Military Operations (SMO) in Ukraine. 


Major military powers - North Korea, Vietnam, Iran and possibly Indonesia - appear to be gravitating towards aligning with Russia to challenge the US quest for unipolarity and global hegemony. 


India has always championed multipolarity, but has never challenged US unilateralism openly. For example, it has been very circumspect in its dealings with Russia, a special and privileged strategic partner, in order to avoid US sanctions. To an extent where it has allowed even defence procurements to languish. 


In the subsequent paragraphs, we will discuss how India’s fence sitting may soon prove counterproductive.


Emerging Contours of Future Alignment


US unilateralism is most often enforced through NATO, under the guise of protecting democracy or preventing humanitarian crises. NATO's campaigns in Iraq, erstwhile Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Libya and the Mediterranean sea being examples.


It appears that now some Global South military powers are aligning with Russia to deter NATO interventions. 


China along with Russia and its allies like Iran and North Korea could emerge as bulwarks against wanton NATO interventions in a close knit relationship that mimics the current relationship between the US and NATO. 


The Dilemma for India


India needs to take a principled stand on ongoing realignments to secure India’s future interests. Fence sitting, India's current proclivity, is not a principled stand. 


India is not resource rich. It needs to align with the side that can meet its energy and metals requirement through short and secure trade routes. 


India's natural alignment should be with the emerging alliance to support multipolarity. In many ways, BRICS is that emerging alliance and India is already a founding member of BRICS. 


However, there is some unease in the Indian establishment that China will dominate BRICS to an extent that would not be in India's interest. 


Logically speaking, both China and India are founding members of BRICS. So India will have as much chance to dominate BRICS as China. A lot will depend on which country plays a more prominent role in the organisation. Keeping in mind China's greater economic heft, it is likely that China will. But that is what multilateralism is about, isn't it? 



Many Indians believe that more active Indian participation in BRICS would lead to burning our bridges with the West. Is that really true?


The Allure of the West


The West has made deep inroads into Indian society through subtle and indirect control of Indian corporates, media, financial institutions and entertainment industry.


The American dream has become the dream of tech savvy young Indians. 


Most high ranking Indian bureaucrats have family in the US, as do a lot of politicians. It would be wishful thinking to believe that the presence of family members in the US would not influence bureaucratic and political decisions. 


Ironically, the US Ambassador to India, His Excellency Eric Garcetti, recently alluded to such family ties in the context of relations between India and the US!


Western Disinformation


The Indian media has promoted the Western narrative of Putin being an evil dictator with an imperial mindset, bent upon conquests to expand Russian borders. Most young Indians have bought the narrative without introspection.


Actually, the hate filled Western narrative is completely devoid of substance. Russia is geographically the largest country in the world. As per the last census, it had a  population of approximately 146 million people and a total land area of about 17.1 million square kilometres, which translates to a population density of 8.54 people. 


Why would a grossly underpopulated Russia want to add more territory? 


The fact is, Russia has vast reserves of critical natural resources such as oil, coal and metals, has a vast geographical spread, a low population density and multiple regional ethnicities make it a low hanging fruit to satiate the corporate greed of the West. The West aims to dismember Russia and acquire its resources.


People to People Bond


Most young Indians have no idea about the great warmth in the hearts of the Russian people towards India. They have never visited Russia and completely believe the West’s hate filled narrative on Russia.


While it is true that immigrant Indians in the US command respect, it is also true that few US citizens consider Indians to be peers. There is certainly much less warmth towards Indian people in American hearts than in Russian hearts.


As far as US leadership is concerned, they certainly don’t look upon Indians as equals!


By stepping up its participation in BRICS, India would not be burning bridges with the West. However, if some bridges do get burned, the West will quickly build stronger bridges. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is proof of this paradoxical axiom. 


The West needs to trade in order to support the high consumption levels of its citizens. Also, the West prefers to trade with stronger nations for greater stability of trade. Whatever else may be abhorrent about the West, their pragmatism cannot be doubted. 



BRICS is Here to Stay & Grow


BRICS emerged as a grouping called BRIC in 2006 when Brazil, Russia, India and China held their first meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly. 


In 2010, South Africa was invited to join the group which was then renamed BRICS. For over a decade since then, the growth and importance of BRICS was less than spectacular and India's participation in the group was merely frowned upon by the West. It wasn't considered a cause of concern since BRICS was looked upon as a non entity. 


Following the start of the SMO in February 2024, the West imposed widespread sanctions on trade with Russia. In order to protect their economic interests many non western nations expressed a desire to join BRICS, seeking alternative allies and trading partners.


Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE joined the group on January 1, 2024. More nations are poised to join BRICS in the near future. 


It's in India's interest to play an active and constructive role in the progress of BRICS. As a founding member, India can deal with China as an equal. India's relations with other BRICS founder members are as strong as China's and are likely to remain so. 



The Global South looks upon BRICS as a grouping that will usher in true multilateralism in the world. If India sticks with BRICS, it will likely have a role to play in world affairs. A role  that it will never have as a non security council member of the UN.



Were India to drag its feet on BRICS, it would generate a lot of resentment among the countries of the Global South. India's status as a leader of the Global South would be compromised. 


Problem with China

Now, coming back to the elephant in the room whenever and wherever there is discussion on India's role in BRICS - China.


While there can be no doubt that China is an adversary, projecting China as a threat to India's sovereignty or territorial integrity makes little sense. India is the largest nation on Earth in terms of population. It has a vibrant economy and a very large and well trained military with a credible nuclear deterrence. Any contention that China can militarily defeat India has to be absurd. 


India should strive for a quick settlement of its boundary dispute. Our border problem is a legacy of our colonial history. There is room for a different viewpoint on India’s claim, particularly in Ladakh. 


While there is no denying Chinese intransigence and arrogance, typical of an autocratic leadership with an imperial mindset, is a big impediment to settling the border dispute, tough negotiations under tough leaders can resolve the imbroglio.


However, if a settlement remains elusive, India should adapt to a life with unsettled borders. It should firmly hold the LAC, something it has repeatedly slipped up on doing in the past.


If required, the Indian armed forces could be given a clear mandate to hold the LAC based on maps showing current troop deployments. The COAS could then annually certify before the parliament that the LAC is still being held as per the maps. And if not, explain why not. No political or bureaucratic discretion would be allowed on the present status of the LAC.


Conclusion


In view of recent global realignments, there is perhaps a need for India to tweak its foreign policy. India has always advocated global multipolarity, so it must stand up to its beliefs. 


India needs to act in its best  interest, which doesn't necessarily point to neutrality, sitting on the fence or sitting on moral high ground. 


Realignments don't involve burning bridges. Strong nations respect other strong nations. 


Finally, India needs to accept China for what it is - a belligerent state with an autocratic leadership inclined to bully weaker nations. But, Indian political leadership need not be influenced by Chinese belligerence. The leadership needs to trust and have confidence in the Indian Armed Forces' ability to protect India's territorial integrity, and give them freedom to do their jobs.