There is room & time for Su-57 and AMCA in IAF Inventory

    Speaking on the sidelines of the Dubai Airshow 2019 in the UAE on November 18, 2019,  Sergey Chemezov, head of  Russia's Rostec, indicated that India and the UAE "have been considering and discussing buying the Su-57 "for a long time, though no decision has been delivered yet."

“The Russian side proposed to localize the production of individual components of the export version of the Su-57 in countries [that are interested,] we are talking about India, the United Arab Emirates, Turkey”

"Localization [has been offered] ... It does not matter whether it is [the] United Arab Emirates, India or Turkey, we will rely on what they can do"

Elaborating on his statement, Chemezov explained that the extent of the localization would be dictated by the industrial capability of the buyer nation. Russia would source local components if the buyer could manufacture them, but would not assist in setting up the supply chain. In the absence of an existing supply chain, localization would not be possible.

“If there are simply no such technological capabilities in the country, then it is simply impossible to do this,” S. Chemezov noted.

During his visit to Russia in July 2019, the former Chief of Air Staff (CAS) Air Chief Marshal Birender Singh Dhanoa had stated that the IAF will have a look at the Su-57 only after it joins active service with the Russian Air Force. Russian Aerospace Force has ordered 76 Su-57 jets, the first of which is scheduled to be delivered by the end of 2019.

During the annual press conference on October 5, 2019, ahead of the Air Force Day on October 8, 2019, the current CAS, Air Chief Marshal RKS Bhaduria said in response to a question from the press, “On the fifth generation (requirement), the AMCA has been given a go ahead and we have given it our whole support and are putting in our energies there. No import is planned in the foreseeable future.”

The remarks  were widely interpreted as ruling out import of any 5th gen fighter. However, they could also be interpreted as reiterating what the former CAS said - that at the appropriate time acquisition of the Su-57 could be considered.

It's likely that the IAF and the government are keeping their options open on the issue. Since Russia is unlikely to export the Su-57 before its own requirement of 76 aircraft is fulfilled there is no reason for India to commit at this stage.

AMCA Challenge

The AMCA is projected to enter operational service in 2035, if ADA and HAL stick to their timelines. Whether or not the IAF can fulfill its mandated role for the next 15 years without 5th gen fighter technology would depend on how threat perceptions play out. Here it's relevant to note that ADA / HAL have yet to demonstrate any of the critical technologies that would be required for the AMCA - LO shaping with super maneuverability, sensor fusion, super cruise, secure low probability of intercept high bandwidth data link and the ability to function as command center for other aircraft, including attack drones, when performing joint operations. As such, the ADA / HAL projected timeline looks overly optimistic.

IAF Options

Over the next 15 years, there are likely to be just two operational 5th generation fighters - Lockheed Martin's F-35 Lightening 2 and Su-57. The F-35 is unlikely to find favor with the IAF because Lockheed retains control over the stealth fighter's software even when selling it to the USAF. 

The choice before the IAF is to wait for the AMCA, or to acquire some Su-57s while it waits for the AMCA! There following are some factors that the IAF would well to keep in mind while exercising its choice.

Sergey Chemezov's statements at Dubai seem to suggest that Russia has drawn a clear line as to the extent and type of localization that it will agree to. If India were to purchase the Su-57, Russia would be willing to source any Su-57 component that India is in a position to manufacture and supply. It will not transfer technology to India to help make components locally as part of the deal!

Here it is relevant to point out that unlike the F-35, which relies primarily on its radar frequency low observability (RF LO) to safely operate in contested airspace, the Su-57 uses a combination of RF LO, electronic warfare (EW), supermaneuverability, and laser blinding of missile seekers to remain safe in contested airspace. As a result, the Su-57 features a powerful defensive suite laden with sensors, jammers and laser emitters that are not well known to the West. Under the circumstances, Russia's desire to limit localization is reasonable.

The Su-57 has generated a lot of interest in the middle east with Turkey and UAE openly negotiating and Saudi Arabia a future prospect. The reason for the interest is simple to understand - the US will not sell the F-35 to these countries because of the threat such sales would pose to Israel. Russia is keen to seize the opportunity and fill the gap not just to increase its arms sales but also to increase its clout in the Middle East. Under the circumstances, it wouldn't in India's long term strategic interests to play coy for too long.

Raksha Mantri Rajnath Singh's Visit to UEC-Klimov in St. Petersburg Explained

Shri Rajnath Singh at the Klimov Plant

Introduction

During his recent visit to Russia from November 5 to November 7, 2019, India's Defense Minister, Rajnath Singh, visited Saint-Petersburg based UEC-Klimov (which is incorporated in United Engine Corporation of State Corporation Rostec).

Klimov is the largest developer and manufacturer of engines for Military and Civil aircraft in Russia.

During the visit the Indian Defense Minister was briefed on the product range of the enterprise and key stages of the production process and taken on a tour of the mechanical, assembly and test workshops.

Shri Rajnath Singh was shown the TV7-117ST, TV7-117V, VK-2500, and RD-33MK engines, all of which are of interest to India.

TV7-117ST Turboprop Engine

The TV7-117ST is turboprop engine which powers the Ilyushin IL-114 regional transport aircraft.

The Indian defense minister being briefed on the six-blade Aerosila AV-112 propeller fitted on the TV7-117ST engine.

In terms of efficiency and reliability, the TV7-117ST is among the best turboprop engines in the world in its class. The engine has a takeoff power rating of 3,100 hp and emergency power rating of 3,600 hp. On the IL-114, the TV7-117ST engine is coupled to  the newly developed six-blade Aerosila AV-112 propeller which increases thrust.

The TV7-117ST-01 engine is  variant of the TV7-117ST engine which powers the Ilyushin Il-114-300 regional liner. The TV7-117ST-01 is currently undergoing flight trials on an Ilyushin IL-76LL which was displayed at MAKS 2019

An IL-76LL fitted with a Klimov TV7-117ST-01 for flight trials

The IL-114-300 is a 52-64 seat analog of the ATR-42. India's state owned aircraft manufacturer, Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL), is reportedly planning to make the IL-114-300 in India as a regional airliner for domestic airlines.

HAL has tied up with Ilyushin, initially to provide maintenance support for the IL-114-300 in India and later to assemble the plane in the country.

In September 2019, HAL chairman R Madhavan was quoted in the report as saying,
“Ilyushin is working on civil certification of this aircraft, that is likely to come by 2021. After that they get European (aviation regulator) certification also for using this aircraft in civilian space. We signed a non-disclosure agreement with Ilyushin for doing maintenance of this aircraft in India for its customers from India and nearby countries.”

Configured as a military transport, the IL-114-300 could also replace the 100 odd Antonov An-32 aircraft of the IAF. There is also a maritime variant, IL-114MP, which too could be of interest to India.

TV7-117V Turboshaft Engine

The TV7-117V turboshaft engine is a helicopter powerplant version of the TV-117SM engine. Two TV7-117V turboshaft engines, each of 1753 kW power rating are fitted on Russia's newest transport helicopter Mi-38. The Mi-38 was unveiled at MAKS-2019 and made its international debut at the Dubai Airshow 2019. It's a transport helicopter designed and built with focus on passenger safety and comfort, environmental friendliness, and low noise on the ground..

Russia is pitching the Mi-38 to Pawan Hans Limited, India's state owned civil helicopter company, as a replacement for existing Mi-172.

The Mi-38 can be operated in a wide range of climatic conditions, including marine, tropical and cold climates. The high altitude performance of the helicopter is an important USP. The Mi-38 set a world record reaching an altitude of 8,600 meters, which is almost as high as Mt. Everest [8,848 meters].

VK-2500 Turboshaft Engine

The VK-2500 (2,700 hp) turboshaft engine is a modern high-hot variant of the Klimov’s TV3-117 (2,100 hp) which powers the Mi-8/Mi-17 helicopter family of helicopters.

Klimov VK-2500PS engine on display at MAKS 2019

The Indian Air Force (IAF) currently has around 151 Mi-17V-5 helicopters powered by the TV3-117 engine, the last of which were delivered in January 2016. Russia is proposing that the IAF upgrade its Mi-17V-5 fleet to the Mi-171A2 standard powered by VK-2500PC engines. Besides more powerful and efficient engines, the Mi-171A2 features upgraded main rotor, gear systems and fuselage and advanced avionics. The total number of improvements exceed 80.

The latest variant of the engine, VK-2500PS, offers extended service life and full authority digital engine control system for improved performance.

RD-33MK Turbofan Engine

The RD-33MK engine, is a fourth generation engine derived from the RD-33 Series. If differs from the baseline model in having a new low-pressure compressor, an improved high-pressure compressor, an improved cooling turbine, an advanced smokeless combustor and up-to-date AVARK-42 FADEC system.

The RD-33MK engine has higher thrust, higher reliability and a longer service life of up to 4,000 hours.

The RD-33MK was developed to power the MiG-29K/KUB and MiG-35.

The RD-33MK variant which powers MiG-29K/KUB additionally features emergency takeoff rating and corrosion resistant coating on the gas air flow duct. The emergency takeoff rating makes it possible for the aircraft to takeoff from the aircraft carrier deck without use of catapult launcher.

The Indian Navy procured 45 MiG-29K/KUB for carrier borne operations from INS Vikramaditya, its lone aircraft carrier. Russia has now pitched the RD-33MK powered MiG-35 against the IAF's requirement for 110 medium class fighters.

During the meeting with the top management of the enterprise Shri Rajnath Singh put a high value on the scientific-design capacities of JSC “UEC-Klimov”, the quality and the scale of the up-to-date production complex.

Rafale - Nature of the India Specific Enhancements (ISEs)

Rafale at Aero India 2017

The Rafale contract envisages 13 India Specific enhancements (ISEs) valued at Euro 1.3 b. There is no official list of the ISEs in the public domain, however, based on media reports the ISEs include:

1. More powerful engine
2. Radar enhancements
3. Helmet mounted display
4. Towed decoy system
5. Radar warning receiver
6. Low band jammer
7. SATCOM
8. Radio altimeter (CFIT avoidance?)
9. Ability to start and operate from High Altitude Airfields
10. 10-hr flight data recorder
11. Infrared Search and Tracking (IRST)
12. Missile Approach Warning System (MAWS)

The ToI reported on January 20, 2019 that the 13 India-specific enhancements or upgrades on the 36 jets would become fully operational only by September-October 2022 as they will require another six months to undergo "software certification" after all the fighters have arrived in India. In the past, there were reports that the ISEs would be carried out in India for all but the first Rafale to be delivered. The ToI in its above report states 

The first Rafale jet with the 13 ISEs is currently undergoing flight-testing in France, which is expected to achieve certification by April 2022. By this time, the other 35 fighters with the requisite hardware upgrades will be delivered to India in batches of 4-6 each. "Thereafter, it will take another six months to finish the certification for the software to drive the ISEs for all the 36 jets," said another source.

The above quoted and other past reports suggest that the ISEs are largely software related. 

The nature of the ISEs also reinforces the likelihood of they being primarily software related. If indeed that is the case, it would suggest that Dassault would be supplying India the source code of the sensors and display systems as part of the ISEs. Using the source code and ISE implementation documentation supplied by Dassault, IAF personnel would be able to customize the existing algorithms used and hone them to address the specific threats that the IAF faces. 

The IAF would also be able to customize and if required tweak the display layout and symbology associated with multi-function and head up displays. That would explain why the IAF cannot detail the ISE specifics despite questions being raised about the high price being paid for them. 

The following is an illustrative example. One of the ISE is LBJ (Low Band Jammer). However, LBJ is part of the Spectra EW suite that equips the F3R variant that India is purchasing from Dassault, so why is it listed as an ISE? Well.., because through customization the algorithms used to jam low band RF can be tweaked to handle the specific threats faced by India. The nature (frequency band, pulse characteristics, etc.) of RF emissions of Indian adversaries would be well known to India but not France. So software customization would be best handled by IAF personnel. 

Similar would be the case for the AESA radar, towed jammer, IRST, MAWS, CIFT avoidance, SATCOM, etc.

The IAF would also want to customize the layout and symbology used on the fusion displays for standardization across platforms. It is unlikely that the IAF would have bought a software intensive platform such as the Rafale without the ToT for deep customization. The ToT would additionally allow the IAF to use Indian developed weapon systems like the Astra BVR missile and in the future weapon systems such as the NGARM.

There is another facet to the need for ISEs, Rafale would be operated by at least two other countries friendly to one of our adversaries leaving a window  ajar for leaks of critical algorithms used in the Rafale. (The other adversary is an IPR thief of repute and would steal from any country - friendly or not!)

This post is based on this twitter thread posted on January 19, 2019.

Is Russia Adding Formidable 6th Gen Capability to its Su-57 fighter?

via Twitter

Recently, the T-50-3 was observed in new pixelated camouflage pattern with an insignia on the tail depicting a Okhotnik UCAV radio linked to a T-50. (See above)

The T-50-3 featured three new protrusions on the fuselage - A under fuselage sensor slightly ahead of the cockpit, an over the fuselage antenna just behind the cockpit, and an antenna on the underside of the tail boom in between the exhaust nozzles.

The insignia and the protrusions have fueled social media speculation that the aircraft has been upgraded to control and guide LO drones capable of penetrating contested airspace to attack targets or relay targeting data

The ability to control stealthy drones for penetrating heavily contested airspace, or legacy aircraft operating as loyal wing-man weapon trucks is a sixth generation fighter features. For example, the Franco - German - Spanish FCAS, which is planned to enter operational service in 2040, will feature this ability.

Okhotnik (Hunter) UCAV

A see through model of the Sukhoi Okhotnik (Hunter) UCAV was first unveiled by KRET at MAKS-2015. The UAV model closely resembled Northrop’s carrier-based X-47B demonstrator, but added two lift fans on each wing and vertical stabilizers.

See through Okhotnik model at MAKS 2015 [via Twitter]

The heavy (20t)  UAV, reportedly capable of flying at 1000 kph, performed its first T/O run trial at the Novosibirsk Aircraft Production Plant in November 2018 reaching a speed of 200 kph.

Compensating for the Su-57's Lack of All Aspect Stealth

The Su-57 features good front aspect stealth, but not so good side and rear aspect stealth making it a capable head on interceptor, but not such a capable offensive platform. Ground based radars and AWACS would pick up a Su-57 much more easily than they would a F-22 Raptor which features good all aspect stealth.

Good front aspect stealth in combination with L-band leading edge AESA radar and good front sector optronics make the Su-57 a formidable interceptor of LO observable attack aircraft such as the F-22 Raptor, F-35 Lightening 2, and the J-20. In order to keep the aircraft affordable, an economically stretched Russia initially concentrated on the defensive capabilities of the Su-57.

Sukkhoi Okhotnik UCAV (via Twitter)

The ability to guide a LO sensor / attack platform into contested adversary airspace to obtain targeting data would now give the Su-57 formidable attack capability. It would also explain why Russia has invested heavily in developing long range stealthy cruise missiles such as the Kh-59MK2  for internal carriage on the T-50.

The limited weapon load of the very stealthy F-22 Raptor is its greatest shortcoming. By opting for differently-abled stealth platforms specialized for different roles with the ability to work as a single system, Russia may be poised to once again score with its asymmetric approach to countering American economic and technical prowess.