The recent visit of the Russian President Vladimir Putin to North Korea and Vietnam signalled a tectonic shift in global alignments as a consequence of the ongoing Russian Special Military Operations (SMO) in Ukraine.
Major military powers - North Korea, Vietnam, Iran and possibly Indonesia - appear to be gravitating towards aligning with Russia to challenge the US quest for unipolarity and global hegemony.
India has always championed multipolarity, but has never challenged US unilateralism openly. For example, it has been very circumspect in its dealings with Russia, a special and privileged strategic partner, in order to avoid US sanctions. To an extent where it has allowed even defence procurements to languish.
In the subsequent paragraphs, we will discuss how India’s fence sitting may soon prove counterproductive.
Emerging Contours of Future Alignment
US unilateralism is most often enforced through NATO, under the guise of protecting democracy or preventing humanitarian crises. NATO's campaigns in Iraq, erstwhile Yugoslavia, Afghanistan, Libya and the Mediterranean sea being examples.
It appears that now some Global South military powers are aligning with Russia to deter NATO interventions.
China along with Russia and its allies like Iran and North Korea could emerge as bulwarks against wanton NATO interventions in a close knit relationship that mimics the current relationship between the US and NATO.
The Dilemma for India
India needs to take a principled stand on ongoing realignments to secure India’s future interests. Fence sitting, India's current proclivity, is not a principled stand.
India is not resource rich. It needs to align with the side that can meet its energy and metals requirement through short and secure trade routes.
India's natural alignment should be with the emerging alliance to support multipolarity. In many ways, BRICS is that emerging alliance and India is already a founding member of BRICS.
However, there is some unease in the Indian establishment that China will dominate BRICS to an extent that would not be in India's interest.
Logically speaking, both China and India are founding members of BRICS. So India will have as much chance to dominate BRICS as China. A lot will depend on which country plays a more prominent role in the organisation. Keeping in mind China's greater economic heft, it is likely that China will. But that is what multilateralism is about, isn't it?
Many Indians believe that more active Indian participation in BRICS would lead to burning our bridges with the West. Is that really true?
The Allure of the West
The West has made deep inroads into Indian society through subtle and indirect control of Indian corporates, media, financial institutions and entertainment industry.
The American dream has become the dream of tech savvy young Indians.
Most high ranking Indian bureaucrats have family in the US, as do a lot of politicians. It would be wishful thinking to believe that the presence of family members in the US would not influence bureaucratic and political decisions.
Ironically, the US Ambassador to India, His Excellency Eric Garcetti, recently alluded to such family ties in the context of relations between India and the US!
Western Disinformation
The Indian media has promoted the Western narrative of Putin being an evil dictator with an imperial mindset, bent upon conquests to expand Russian borders. Most young Indians have bought the narrative without introspection.
Actually, the hate filled Western narrative is completely devoid of substance. Russia is geographically the largest country in the world. As per the last census, it had a population of approximately 146 million people and a total land area of about 17.1 million square kilometres, which translates to a population density of 8.54 people.
Why would a grossly underpopulated Russia want to add more territory?
The fact is, Russia has vast reserves of critical natural resources such as oil, coal and metals, has a vast geographical spread, a low population density and multiple regional ethnicities make it a low hanging fruit to satiate the corporate greed of the West. The West aims to dismember Russia and acquire its resources.
People to People Bond
Most young Indians have no idea about the great warmth in the hearts of the Russian people towards India. They have never visited Russia and completely believe the West’s hate filled narrative on Russia.
While it is true that immigrant Indians in the US command respect, it is also true that few US citizens consider Indians to be peers. There is certainly much less warmth towards Indian people in American hearts than in Russian hearts.
As far as US leadership is concerned, they certainly don’t look upon Indians as equals!
By stepping up its participation in BRICS, India would not be burning bridges with the West. However, if some bridges do get burned, the West will quickly build stronger bridges. Turkey's President Recep Tayyip Erdoğan is proof of this paradoxical axiom.
The West needs to trade in order to support the high consumption levels of its citizens. Also, the West prefers to trade with stronger nations for greater stability of trade. Whatever else may be abhorrent about the West, their pragmatism cannot be doubted.
BRICS is Here to Stay & Grow
BRICS emerged as a grouping called BRIC in 2006 when Brazil, Russia, India and China held their first meeting on the sidelines of the United Nations General Assembly.
In 2010, South Africa was invited to join the group which was then renamed BRICS. For over a decade since then, the growth and importance of BRICS was less than spectacular and India's participation in the group was merely frowned upon by the West. It wasn't considered a cause of concern since BRICS was looked upon as a non entity.
Following the start of the SMO in February 2024, the West imposed widespread sanctions on trade with Russia. In order to protect their economic interests many non western nations expressed a desire to join BRICS, seeking alternative allies and trading partners.
Iran, Egypt, Ethiopia and the UAE joined the group on January 1, 2024. More nations are poised to join BRICS in the near future.
It's in India's interest to play an active and constructive role in the progress of BRICS. As a founding member, India can deal with China as an equal. India's relations with other BRICS founder members are as strong as China's and are likely to remain so.
The Global South looks upon BRICS as a grouping that will usher in true multilateralism in the world. If India sticks with BRICS, it will likely have a role to play in world affairs. A role that it will never have as a non security council member of the UN.
Were India to drag its feet on BRICS, it would generate a lot of resentment among the countries of the Global South. India's status as a leader of the Global South would be compromised.
Problem with China
Now, coming back to the elephant in the room whenever and wherever there is discussion on India's role in BRICS - China.
While there can be no doubt that China is an adversary, projecting China as a threat to India's sovereignty or territorial integrity makes little sense. India is the largest nation on Earth in terms of population. It has a vibrant economy and a very large and well trained military with a credible nuclear deterrence. Any contention that China can militarily defeat India has to be absurd.
India should strive for a quick settlement of its boundary dispute. Our border problem is a legacy of our colonial history. There is room for a different viewpoint on India’s claim, particularly in Ladakh.
While there is no denying Chinese intransigence and arrogance, typical of an autocratic leadership with an imperial mindset, is a big impediment to settling the border dispute, tough negotiations under tough leaders can resolve the imbroglio.
However, if a settlement remains elusive, India should adapt to a life with unsettled borders. It should firmly hold the LAC, something it has repeatedly slipped up on doing in the past.
If required, the Indian armed forces could be given a clear mandate to hold the LAC based on maps showing current troop deployments. The COAS could then annually certify before the parliament that the LAC is still being held as per the maps. And if not, explain why not. No political or bureaucratic discretion would be allowed on the present status of the LAC.
Conclusion
In view of recent global realignments, there is perhaps a need for India to tweak its foreign policy. India has always advocated global multipolarity, so it must stand up to its beliefs.
India needs to act in its best interest, which doesn't necessarily point to neutrality, sitting on the fence or sitting on moral high ground.
Realignments don't involve burning bridges. Strong nations respect other strong nations.
Finally, India needs to accept China for what it is - a belligerent state with an autocratic leadership inclined to bully weaker nations. But, Indian political leadership need not be influenced by Chinese belligerence. The leadership needs to trust and have confidence in the Indian Armed Forces' ability to protect India's territorial integrity, and give them freedom to do their jobs.
