The Next India-Pakistan Conflict Will Be Won by Drone Killers

 

The ability to defeat drones is increasingly proving to be more important than the ability to field them. That is perhaps the most important lesson emerging from the wars in Ukraine and Iran—a lesson Indian military planners need to factor into preparations for the inevitable next conflict across our western border.

According to General Oleksandr Syrskyi, Commander-in-Chief of the Armed Forces of Ukraine, most Russian Shahed drones and other aerial attack systems neutralized by Ukrainian forces are now being brought down by interceptor drones.

Not helicopter gunships, armed light trainers, directed-energy weapons (DEWs), low-cost air-defence missiles, or specialised anti-aircraft guns firing programmable airburst ammunition. No—just interceptor drones.

Operationally effective interceptor drones have been around for more than a year. It is time DRDO took note of them.

Interceptor drones are optimised for low cost and typically destroy their targets by ramming them. Some variants employ a small warhead to increase the probability of a successful interception.

Currently, the three most prominent interceptor drones operating in Ukraine are:

* Sting (Ukraine) * Merops AS-3 Surveyor (United States) * Yolka (Russia)

In the following sections, we examine their features, capabilities, and key differentiators.

FPV Interceptor Drones

Interceptor drones were initially FPV (First-Person View) drones that relied on real-time radio control and live video feeds.

Using RF sensors, it is possible to detect the communication link between a drone and its operator, allowing triangulation and pinpointing of the operator's location. The control link can also be jammed or spoofed using electronic warfare (EW) systems.

FPV drone operators face significant danger because they must remain relatively close to the front line to maintain a strong signal. This exposes them to artillery fire, snipers, counter-drone attacks, and detection through radio-frequency triangulation.

Russian forces exploit this vulnerability by pairing Geran-2 drones. If an FPV interceptor is launched against one Geran-2, the second drone can use onboard sensors to locate the operator and attack immediately.

Ukraine's Sting Interceptor Drone

The most successful Ukrainian-developed interceptor drone currently in service is the Sting. The low-cost drone (approximately $2,000–2,100) uses a quadcopter architecture and features a 3D-printed aerodynamic airframe shaped like a bullet.

The Sting is capable of speeds of approximately 280–343 km/h. It is designed primarily as a kinetic interceptor, with the operator steering it directly into the target. Guidance is provided through day and thermal cameras, with possible sensor fusion from radar systems.

Ukraine began employing the Sting in combat during the spring of 2025, with widespread deployment by June 2025. The first publicly documented success occurred in April 2025 when footage of a Sting downing a Shahed-type drone went viral.

Sting Interceptor Drone Photo: The Telegraph

Perhaps the most remarkable feature of the Sting is its ability to be operated remotely from hundreds or even thousands of kilometres away.

Like other FPV drones, the Sting maintains a line-of-sight link to a forward control station. However, this forward station functions primarily as a relay node, connecting the drone to its pilot via Starlink's low-latency internet network. As a result, the pilot can be located virtually anywhere in the world.

Ukrainian operators typically control the drone from hardened shelters. The architecture also allows Sting drones to be launched from unmanned surface vessels (USVs).

Autonomous Interceptor Drones

The next generation of interceptor drones is being designed to operate autonomously using AI-powered machine vision, both during the day and at night.

These drones can independently detect, track, and engage targets without continuous human involvement. As a result, they do not require a vulnerable control channel that can be jammed or spoofed.

In effect, they are launch-and-scoot weapons that remove the operator from the battlefield and significantly reduce operational risk.

Russian Yolka Drone

Russian forces began operational deployment of the autonomous Yolka interceptor drone in early 2026.

The Yolka can be hand-launched, enabling widespread and highly distributed deployment. Once launched in the direction of a target, it operates autonomously.

Weighing approximately 1.3 kg, the Yolka is also based on a quadcopter architecture similar to the Sting. It can reach speeds of 200–250 km/h and operate at altitudes of up to 2 km.

Yolka vs Sting

The Yolka is significantly lighter and cheaper than the Sting, with an estimated cost of roughly $500 compared to the Sting's $2,000-plus price tag.

However, these savings come with trade-offs. The Yolka's range is limited to approximately 2.5–4 km, compared with the Sting's estimated 25–37 km range. It is also slower than its Ukrainian counterpart.

Merops AS-3 Surveyor

In addition to the Sting, Ukrainian forces are employing the American-made Merops AS-3 Surveyor, a sophisticated but significantly more expensive interceptor system.

Unlike the Sting and Yolka, the AS-3 requires catapult launch, reducing deployment flexibility. However, its conventional fixed-wing airframe enables much higher aerodynamic efficiency and speed.

The truck-portable counter-drone system consists of:

* Radar and electro-optical sensors for target detection and tracking * A command-and-control station * Pneumatic or mobile launch platforms * A fleet of Surveyor interceptor drones

The AS-3 derives its effectiveness from a combination of AI-enabled autonomy, high speed, and resistance to jamming.

After launch, the drone is initially guided using the sensors of the Merops system. During the terminal phase, it relies on onboard infrared and RF sensors combined with AI-powered machine vision.

The drone can continue homing in on its target even when satellite navigation and communication signals are jammed.

AI-powered machine vision, combined with the fusion of infrared and RF sensor inputs, is central to the Surveyor's effectiveness.

With a maximum speed of approximately 280 km/h, the AS-3 is capable of overtaking Russian Geran drones.

The current unit cost is estimated at around $15,000, although this is expected to fall below $10,000 as production scales.

Quadcopter vs Fixed-Wing Interceptors

The Sting and Yolka are quadcopter drones. They are simpler and cheaper to manufacture but are aerodynamically less efficient because they lack wings to generate lift and glide efficiently through the air.

Consequently, quadcopters are not optimised for sustained high-speed flight.

To intercept faster fixed-wing drones, quadcopter interceptors often position themselves above the incoming target. At the appropriate moment, they dive, converting altitude into speed and enabling a successful interception.

Future Developments

Interceptor-drone development is currently focused on increasing speed through the adoption of fixed-wing designs such as the AS-3 Surveyor.

Reusability is another area receiving considerable attention.

Fixed-wing drones can achieve higher speeds in level flight and generally manoeuvre more efficiently during the terminal interception phase.

Russian forces have already begun mass deployment of fixed-wing interceptor drones, including a dedicated air-defence variant of the Molniya family known as the Molniya-PVO. The drone is reported to be capable of speeds between 220 and 330 km/h.

Like the Yolka, the Molniya can be hand-launched. Alternatively, it can be launched using a lightweight catapult.

Conclusion

Ukraine seized an early lead in interceptor-drone technology with the Sting. Russia has largely closed the gap with the rapidly evolving Yolka and is now introducing fixed-wing interceptors such as the Molniya-PVO.

One important point stands out. Starlink has given Ukrainian forces a low-latency communications advantage that Russia is unlikely to match for several years.

There is another lesson for Indian defence planners. Rapid advances in drone autonomy are being driven by access to high-performance AI semiconductors and resilient communications networks.

India remains a long way from sovereign access to either low-latency broadband networks comparable to Starlink or the cutting-edge AI chips needed to support the next generation of autonomous combat systems.

Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. First published on Thumkar.

India Cannot Win Tomorrow’s Wars With Yesterday’s Technologies

 

AI conceptualisation of a AI powered drone attacking a supply truck

The US currently leads the world in two critical military technologies — satellite-based low-latency internet and AI. The former gives its weapons global reach, while the latter provides unprecedented accuracy. Together, they could enable the US to maintain its military dominance across the world for decades.

In a low-key manner, the US is already flexing its Starlink-based global reach and AI-powered accuracy through the drones it is supplying to Ukraine.

Perennial Autonomy, a company founded by Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, has developed two drones that have put Russian forces on the back foot — the Merops Surveyor interceptor drone and the Hornet kamikaze drone. The Surveyor interceptor uses AI to bring down Russian drones, while the Hornet drone uses both Starlink and AI to wreak havoc on Russia's ability to supply its troops along the front line.

Merops AS-3 Surveyor

The Merops AS-3 Surveyor is a mobile, truck-portable counter-drone system comprising:

1. Radar and electro-optical sensors for detection and tracking
2. A ground control/command station
3. Pneumatic or mobile launch platforms
4. A fleet of Surveyor interceptor drones

The fixed-wing Surveyor interceptor was first combat-tested in Ukraine around June 2024. By late 2025, it had reportedly achieved over 1,900 intercepts. In some sectors, it is claimed to have brought down roughly 40% of Russian Geran drones. Recent reports claim 4,000 successful Russian drone interceptions.

The Surveyor is an effective interceptor on account of its greater AI-based autonomy, speed, and jam resistance. Following launch, the drone is cued and initially guided using the sensors of the Merops system. For terminal guidance, it uses onboard IR and RF sensors, as well as AI-based machine vision. It can home in on targets even when SATNAV and communication signals are jammed.

AI-based machine vision and the ability to fuse inputs from IR and RF sensors are key to the success of the Surveyor.

With its maximum speed of 280 km/h, the drone outpaces Russian Gerans.

Hornet Strike Drone

The Hornet drone can be credited with bringing the Russian offensive in Donbas to a crawl along the line of contact, and even to a complete halt in some sectors. Ukraine is also using the drone to strangulate Russia's ability to supply Crimea.

As with the Surveyor, the Hornet's success can largely be attributed to its AI-powered ability to operate effectively in the absence of SATNAV and communications.

We covered the capabilities of the Merops Surveyor and Hornet drones in an earlier post.

AI-Based Machine Vision

So far, SATNAV has been the gold standard in the precision guidance of drones, missiles, and rockets. AI-powered machine-vision-based navigation outperforms SATNAV in accuracy. More importantly, it is completely immune to electronic warfare.

However, machine vision can be spoofed — for example, by using paint schemes that make optical recognition challenging.

With increased onboard processing power, it will become difficult, perhaps impossible, to spoof AI-powered machine vision.

Global Reach

The ability to control drones and missiles capable of precision guidance globally requires a Starlink-like network. Currently, there is no alternative to Starlink.

Outplaying Emerging Powers

In the days ahead, many nations, including India, will build weapons with AI-powered machine vision. However, doing so without acquiring matching semiconductor fabrication and design capability would not allow them to exercise sovereignty over their own weapons.

Semiconductor fabrication and design technologies are likely to be tightly controlled in order to prevent challenges to US military dominance.

As an analogy, a nation with nuclear weapons technology does not share it with a nation that lacks the technology. Indeed, nations that possess nuclear weapons do their best to prevent the "have-nots" from acquiring weapons-grade fissile material.

The ability to manufacture fissile material, a key enabling technology for nuclear weapons, is tightly controlled.

Similarly, robust space-launch capability, as well as the semiconductor fabrication and design capability needed to deploy a Starlink analogue or facilitate advanced machine vision, will be tightly controlled.

The technological barriers to acquiring these capabilities are formidable. The hurdles span multiple years — perhaps multiple decades — and are rooted in physics, engineering complexity, supply chains, and capital intensity.

A low-latency global or regional broadband constellation requires thousands of satellites (Starlink has over 10,000) in low Earth orbit (LEO, ~550 km altitude), inter-satellite laser links, high-volume satellite manufacturing, and millions of user terminals with electronically steered phased-array antennas.

The number of satellites required can vary based on the architecture of the network and its intended extent of coverage. However, a true Starlink analogue would require the development of a reusable launcher.

China, the EU, and Russia have all embarked on deploying Starlink analogues, but all three have so far made limited progress. Countries like India are unlikely to be in a position to acquire such a capability over the next decade.

User Terminals

Low-latency networks use terminals featuring custom ASICs and advanced RF front-end modules (e.g., BiCMOS technology) for phased-array antennas that track fast-moving LEO satellites.

Starlink has already deployed millions of such terminals. STMicroelectronics has shipped over 5 billion RF chips for the terminals, with daily rates exceeding 5 million.

Network satellites use radiation-hardened electronics, onboard processors, and laser comms chips that require specialized semiconductor fabs, which in turn require decades of ecosystem investment.

AI-Powered Machine Vision

Effective (high-accuracy, low-latency) machine vision in drones and cruise missiles requires real-time object detection, tracking, terrain classification, sensor fusion, and autonomous navigation capability under severe size, weight, power, and cost constraints, harsh operating environments, and contested electromagnetic conditions.

Hardware-wise, machine vision relies on high-performance AI accelerators (NPUs, custom ASICs, or optimized GPUs/FPGAs) that must deliver tens to hundreds of TOPS (trillions of operations per second) for neural networks such as CNNs or lightweight transformers (e.g., YOLO variants).

Such hardware would require leading-edge nodes (7 nm, 5 nm, 3 nm, or below) for the density, speed, and energy efficiency needed to run complex models onboard without excessive power draw.

Only a handful of fabs worldwide — primarily TSMC in Taiwan, with limited capacity from Samsung and Intel — can produce these at scale and yield.

The US itself faces geopolitical and supply-chain vulnerabilities. However, it is likely working on a plan to eventually eliminate them.

Conclusion

As things stand, the US appears uniquely positioned in combining reusable launch capability with access to semiconductor fabrication and design ecosystems that facilitate global reach and high-precision strikes by drones and cruise missiles.

In the discussion above, we confined ourselves largely to drones and cruise missiles. AI and secure global communication have applications in other weapon systems as well — space-based weapons, for example.

It is time for India to take a hard look at its quest for self-reliance in weapon manufacturing. Hopefully, we are not focusing on acquiring sunset technologies, and our efforts to acquire semiconductor fabrication and design technologies will be pursued vigorously.

Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. First published on Thumkar.

In Ukraine, US-Supplied Drones Strangulate Russian Supply Lines, Blunt Geran Threat

 

ChatGPT Image

Russia has steadily lost its advantage in drone warfare in Ukraine and is now reeling under the onslaught of Western-supplied drones in general and US-supplied drones in particular.

At one point, Russian innovations — such as Lancet and Kub kamikaze drones, fiber-optic cable-controlled kamikaze drones, and inexpensive long-range one-way attack drones — had given Russian forces a significant edge over Ukraine.

Now, not only has the Russian edge been blunted, Ukrainian forces have seized the initiative using interceptor and strike drones featuring advanced US technology.

The sophistication of US-supplied drones has put Russian forces on the back foot and brought the Russian offensive in Donbas to a grinding halt.

Among the several US companies that have developed potent drones for use by Ukrainian forces is Perennial Autonomy, a company owned by Eric Schmidt, the former CEO of Google.

Two drones developed by Perennial Autonomy are giving Russian forces a hard time — the Merops interceptor drone and the Hornet strike drone.

First time EVER - Ukrainian-American drone Merops being shown in the news, in Ukraine, and in Europe.

So this is basically one of the key drones Ukraine operates to keep it's sky safe. It has a good level of autonomy, so it's easy for the pilots.

— Dimko Zhluktenko 🇺🇦⚔️ (@dim0kq) April 9, 2026

Merops AS-3 Surveyor

The Merops AS-3 Surveyor has reportedly proven effective in intercepting Russian drones.

The fixed-wing Surveyor interceptor was first combat-tested in Ukraine around June 2024. By late 2025, it had reportedly achieved over 1,900 intercepts. In some sectors, it is claimed to have brought down roughly 40% of Russian Geran drones. Recent reports claim 4,000 successful Russian drone interceptions.

The propeller-driven drone is roughly three feet long and is capable of attaining a maximum speed of 280 km/h.

It can be launched pneumatically from the bed of a standard pickup truck alongside a ground control station. The entire system is highly portable and requires minimal training.

Its success in Ukraine reportedly prompted the US Army to order 13,000 units shortly after the US and Israel launched an unprovoked large-scale aerial attack on Iran on February 28, to counter Iranian Shahed drone barrages.

The drone is currently priced at $15,000, but its cost is projected to fall below $10,000.

The Surveyor is an effective interceptor on account of its greater autonomy, speed, and jam resistance. The drone features electro-optical, thermal, and RF sensors. More importantly, it can fuse inputs from its different sensors into highly effective machine vision. Using AI-based autonomy and machine vision, it can home in on targets even when SATNAV and communication signals are jammed. With its maximum speed of 280 km/h, the drone outpaces Russian Gerans.

Its 2 kg fragmentation warhead increases the probability of a successful interception. Combined with its $15,000 price tag, it offers an optimized cost-to-kill ratio.

Hornet Strike Drone

U.S. Army's Hornet AI-enabled strike drone now active across two NATO exercises — Lithuania and Poland. Same system hitting Russian logistics in Ukraine beyond 100 km. Swift Beat, owned by ex-Google CEO Eric Schmidt, is developer.

Read more: https://defence-blog.com/u-s-army-deploys-combat-proven-hornet-strike-drone/

— Dylan Malyasov | 🧐 (@DylanMalyasov) May 5, 2026

The effectiveness of US interceptor drones has substantially relieved the financial and operational burden on Western-supplied Ukrainian air defence (AD) systems deployed to defend Ukrainian airspace, despite the adverse cost-to-kill ratio resulting from the use of high-cost interceptor missiles to destroy low-cost strike drones such as the Geran. More effective interception of Russian attack drones will reduce Russia’s ability to degrade Ukraine's warfighting potential. It would allow Ukraine to continue the fight much longer.

The introduction of the US-supplied Hornet strike drone has yielded a more immediate gain. Along with other factors, Hornets can be credited with bringing the Russian offensive in Donbas to a crawl along the line of contact, and even to a complete halt in some sectors.

The Hornet drone is estimated to cost less than €5,000. Its takeoff weight is approximately 15 kg, its wingspan 2.2 m, and its fuselage length 1.4 m. Its maximum payload reaches 5 kg.

The technological features that make the Hornet potent include stealth, long range, autonomy, navigational accuracy, and EW resilience.

Stealth & Range

The drone uses a conventional airframe that allows RF signature reduction. It also cruises at low altitudes, sometimes extremely low altitudes.

It mostly operates at altitudes of up to 200 m but has reportedly been seen flying as low as 5 m.

It is claimed to have a maximum range of 160 km.

Navigational Accuracy

The drone autonomously tracks along adversary logistics routes using its optical sensors, identifying and prioritizing targets.

It features two daylight cameras — forward-facing and downward-facing — that facilitate terrain orientation, altitude stabilization, target recognition, and target lock-on.

When it detects a target, the system seeks operator clearance to attack. Once clearance is granted, the low-audio-signature drone autonomously dives onto or approaches the target, giving the adversary little reaction time.

EW Resilience

Tracking along logistics routes enhances both navigational accuracy and resilience to EW.

The drone’s built-in autonomy minimizes communication with the operator.

The drone is controlled using the following non-traditional protocols and frequencies:

1. Radio communication in non-standard frequency bands of 1800–1900 MHz, 2000–2300 MHz, and 3300–3800 MHz

2. Starlink or MESH networking

3. LoRa (Long Range)

A large number of operationally deployed Russian EW systems cannot disrupt the non-standard frequency bands used by the Hornet.

Starlink and MESH networks are inherently resilient to jamming.

The LoRa protocol facilitates the transmission of small amounts of data over long distances using very little power. The fact that Russian forces use DMR (Digital Mobile Radio) systems for tactical communication complicates their option of jamming the LoRa spectrum.

Hornet’s SATNAV module can simultaneously receive and process signals from all major satellite constellations — GPS, GLONASS, BeiDou, and Galileo. It can additionally leverage SBAS support to improve signal accuracy.

The drone’s unique communication architecture reportedly enables positioning accuracy of 1.5 m RMS in the absence of EW jamming, significantly exceeding that of previous-generation SATNAV modules.

It has been reported that Ukrainian forces leveraged the accuracy of Hornet drones to destroy the support poles and framework holding protective nets in place over a logistics supply route, collapsing the barriers and opening the routes to follow-on attacks.

Technologically, Russian forces have no effective counter to the Surveyor interceptor drone except making their Gerans fly faster. As far as attack drones are concerned, there is evidence to suggest that Russia is attempting to seize back the initiative with its Geran-5 jet-powered drone — a clean-sheet design bearing no physical resemblance to earlier Geran variants. According to Ukraine’s Main Intelligence Directorate, the Russian Armed Forces plan to ramp up production of jet-powered drones and increase their share to 50% of all long-range drones launched.

Copyright © Vijainder K Thakur. First published on Thumkar.