Successful Ukrainian Iskander-M, Kinzhal Interceptions Plummet Due Missile Upgrades

AI visualisation of a Patriot vs Iskander-M engagement

 The interception rates of Russian Iskander-M and Kinzhal ballistic missiles have dramatically dropped because of Russian missile upgrades. 

Interception Statistics

According to aggregated data compiled from Ukrainian official claims, Russia launched 939 Iskander and Kinzhal ballistic missiles against targets in Ukraine between September 2022 and October 2025. Of these, 227 were reportedly intercepted, representing an interception rate of 24 percent.

It is likely that the interception rate increased steadily over the period as the number of deployed Patriot systems grew. Not just the number of Patriots deployed, the missile's interception tactics and algorithms were also refined to counter the speed and manoeuvring advantages of the Russian missiles.

As a result, by the summer of 2025, the interception rate had increased to 37 percent.

However, in September–October 2025, the interception rate dropped sharply to as low as 6–17 percent.

The decline could be attributed to the limited availability of Patriot interceptors, improved survivability of the Russian missiles, or a combination of both factors.

However, there can be little doubt that technological upgrades and possibly improved tactics have enhanced the survivability of Russian missiles. Russia has improved both the lethality and penetration capability of its Iskander-M missile through greater emphasis on electronic warfare and the use of decoys.

The painstaking effort to improve missile penetration suggests that Russia expects future conflicts to involve dense and sophisticated missile-defence networks.

Iskander-M Upgrades

In the following paragraphs, we take a closer look at recent upgrades to the Iskander-M tactical ballistic missile aimed at improving its lethality and penetration capability.

The Iskander-M now incorporates an updated 9B899 submunition as a self-protection and penetration aid. The 9B899 module features a radar jammer to disrupt RF-guided interceptors and dispenses decoy submunitions—dipole reflectors and heat traps—to create false targets during the terminal phase of flight, confusing RF- and IR-homing interceptor missiles. The Iskander-M can release six or more dart-shaped modules fitted with fins.

The missile uses active scanning, likely through its radar seeker, to identify gaps in adversary radar coverage and then manoeuvres to exploit those gaps. The algorithms used to detect blind spots or weak signals can be continuously updated.

New versions of the missile feature a more powerful microprocessor for faster processing of target-area images captured by the optical seeker, improving accuracy.

Almost 90 percent of the electronic components in the missile are now of Russian origin.

The missile can now be fitted with seven different types of warheads. A concrete-piercing warhead is specifically intended for targeting F-16s in hardened shelters.

Russia has ramped up production of the missile to 60 units per month.

A longer-range (1,000 km) version of the missile—unofficially referred to as the Iskander-1000—is still under development, despite limited orders having already been placed.