MQ-9B LoyalEye: The Rise of Unmanned Airborne Early Warning

 

MQ-9B LoyalEye AEW maiden flight

GA-ASI and SAAB are collaborating to develop a remotely piloted aircraft (RPA)-based airborne early warning (AEW) platform.

GA-ASI is equipping its MQ-9B Remotely Piloted Aircraft (RPA) with Saab-developed LoyalEye radar sensor to create a low-cost platform that will complement manned AEW platforms.

On May 19, GA-ASI flew its MQ-9B for the first time with two Airborne Early Warning (AEW) pods that will eventually carry the fixed antennas of the LoyalEye radar, providing persistent and cost-effective air surveillance.

In the past, SAAB has developed two AEW&C platforms — the Saab 340 Erieye and its successor, the Saab GlobalEye. The Erieye is mounted on the Saab 340 twin-turboprop regional airliner, while the GlobalEye is mounted on the Bombardier Global 6000/6500 ultra-long-range business jet. Both feature AESA radars with fixed antennas.

This MQ-9B maiden flight marks the start of a several-month test-and-evaluation phase, which will culminate in a full-capability demonstration later this year.

The joint AEW offering from Saab and GA-ASI will support a wide range of applications, including early detection and warning, long-range detection and tracking, and the simultaneous tracking of multiple targets. The system will operate both beyond line of sight and via satellite communication (SATCOM) connectivity.

The platform will facilitate defence against tactical air munitions, guided missiles, drones, fighter and bomber aircraft, and other threats.

Using an RPA instead of a manned platform for AEW has some unique advantages, including:

1. High loiter time
2. Aircrews are not put in harm's way
3. Lower acquisition cost
4. Lower operating cost

Loiter time could possibly extend to nearly 40 hours, compared with the approximately 8–11 hours achievable by manned aircraft.

Aircrew and radar operators would be positioned on the ground rather than on the airborne platform. The arrangement is not just safer; it is also cost-effective. Aircrew, radar consoles, and control systems do not remain platform-specific.

The estimated price of the MQ-9B LoyalEye will reportedly be in the $60–80 million range.

The operating cost of an RPA platform would be significantly lower than that of a manned platform.

China's WZ-9 Divine Eagle

China has been actively pursuing remotely piloted airborne early warning (AEW) capability.

Its Shenyang WZ-9 "Divine Eagle" is a high-altitude, long-endurance (HALE), jet-powered UAV designed specifically for AEW and counter-stealth roles.

The twin-boom platform, featuring high-aspect-ratio main wings and a forward canard-style horizontal stabilizer, is powered by a single WZ-9 turbofan engine.

However, the Divine Eagle differs conceptually from the MQ-9B AEW.

The 15-tonne Divine Eagle is believed to be the largest UAV ever built. It is estimated to be roughly 15 m long, with a 45 m wingspan, offers approximately 35 hours of endurance, and has a service ceiling of about 25 km (82,000 ft).

Chinese media suggest that the UAV will be used for a variety of missions, including early warning, targeting, electronic warfare (EW), and satellite communications.

Implications for India

The possibility of Pakistan acquiring an MQ-9B AEW analogue in the future should worry Indian defence planners. The platform is relatively inexpensive but likely capable.

The Pakistan Air Force (PAF) already operates the Saab 2000 Erieye AEW&C (Airborne Early Warning & Control) platform. An export variant of the Saab 340 Erieye, the Saab 2000 Erieye uses the Saab 2000 twin-turboprop regional airliner.

The PAF is one of the largest operators of the platform, with nine aircraft in service as of mid-2026.

It could be possible for Saab to supply the MQ-9B AEW itself or, if the US would not allow it, fit the LoyalEye radar to an alternative MALE platform such as the Bayraktar Akinci.

The lighter payload capability of the Akinci (1,500 kg), compared with that of the MQ-9B (2,500 kg), would make the fit tight once fuel, sensors, and weapons are factored in. However, the Akinci's twin turboprops (up to 2 × 850 hp) likely offer comparable or greater electrical capacity and redundancy.

Not Just for Export: Russia Advances the Su-75 for Its Own Air Force

 

Su-75 Prototype? at Zhukovsky

Vadim Badekha, General Director of the United Aircraft Corporation (UAC), told TASS on June 2, "The work on Checkmate is already at the stage of building a prototype."

According to Badekha, Russia is developing the medium-weight fifth-generation fighter both for use by Russian forces and for international customers.

Badekha noted that the single-engine Checkmate has a cost advantage over heavy twin-engine fighters such as the Su-57.

Earlier, in January, the Izvestia newspaper reported that the first flight of the Russian fifth-generation Su-75 single-engine fighter could take place in 2026.

On November 18, 2025, during an interview on Russia's state-run Channel One television station, Sukhoi chief test pilot Sergei Bogdan stated that the first flight of the Su-75 would take place in 2026.

"The aircraft is already on the shop floor, it is already being finalized, and there are already certain timelines. Therefore, with God's help, it should take place soon enough."

Su-75 Journey So Far

Russia's Sukhoi company first unveiled the company-funded, low-observable (LO), supermaneuverable, optionally manned, single-engine, lightweight (18-tonne), Mach 2 fighter at MAKS 2021.

The Checkmate was reportedly developed based on an analysis of the use of strike aircraft in Syria, which revealed that, for most tasks, the capabilities of heavy twin-engine aircraft are excessive.

The aircraft is reportedly being developed using digital-twin technology, reducing development time by five years.

The USPs of the fighter, designed using electronic modelling, include:

1. Low acquisition and operating costs
2. AI assistance for single-pilot operations
3. Ease of maintenance

Timeline Slippages Due to Redesign

On the eve of Dubai Airshow 2023, Rostec told RIA Novosti that preparations had begun in Russia for the production of the first examples of the light stealth fighter.

As per the timeline announced at Dubai Airshow 2021, the first prototype of the aircraft was expected to fly by the end of 2023.

A statement released by Rostec's press service explained that the timeline had slipped to accommodate design changes. The redesign, it said, "has significantly increased the competitiveness and commercial attractiveness of the domestic single-engine aircraft and reduced the technical risks of its development."

First Deputy Chairman of the Federation Council Defence and Security Committee, Viktor Bondarev, confirmed that, following the redesign, the documentation for the Checkmate fighter had been transferred to the manufacturing plant and preparations for the production of the first examples had begun.

"The pilot batch of Checkmate fighters is planned to be produced in 2026," he said.

Deputy Prime Minister and Minister of Industry and Trade Denis Manturov said: "I can say that over these two years we have collected requests, including making certain adjustments to the project so that it is maximally adapted to the requirements of customers interested in a single-engine aircraft. This applies to the layout, control systems, and aviation weapons. A great deal of work was done on the basis of the Checkmate originally presented here."

In February 2024, Rostec stated in a statement to TASS: "Under the Checkmate program, the United Aircraft Corporation of Rostec received feedback from potential customers. In addition to collecting additional requirements expressed by potential buyers, work was also carried out to optimize costs and analyze individual technical solutions. This made it possible to significantly increase competitiveness and commercial attractiveness, while also reducing technical risks in the creation of a domestic single-engine aircraft."

Su-75 at Zhuhai

Prototype Development

In February 2025, Russian media reported that KnAAZ (Komsomolsk-on-Amur Aviation Plant named after Y.A. Gagarin) planned to assemble two prototypes of the Su-75 Checkmate light tactical aircraft (LTA), one for static testing and one for flight testing.

Three Variants

At Dubai Airshow 2025, as if to reiterate its commitment to the Su-75 project despite the war in Ukraine and unconfirmed interest from potential foreign customers, Sukhoi unveiled a model of an unmanned variant of the fighter alongside the model of the manned variant.

The unmanned variant featured a reworked wing and a revised rear fuselage.

As of now, the Su-75 is proposed in three variants: single-seat, twin-seat, and unmanned.

In the past, Russian media, quoting the Federal Service for Military-Technical Cooperation (FSMTC), reported that Russia and Belarus were working together on the Checkmate project.

The approximate cost of the Checkmate has been estimated at $30 million. For comparison, the basic version of the F-35 costs $80 million or more.

Indian Interest?

In February 2026, responding to a query from TASS, a HAL official said the company was ready to work with Russia to produce new warplane models.

"We are very comfortable working with Russia. There are no problems on our part," said the HAL representative.

In the past, HAL collaborated with Russian aircraft manufacturers to assemble and locally produce fighter aircraft for the IAF, including the MiG-21, MiG-27, and Su-30MKI. However, joint development had never previously been considered.

Joint development offers the advantage of Indian ownership. Beyond securing IPR for the weapon system and fostering self-reliance, it ensures that projects are not subject to import restrictions arising from sanctions.

However, it may now be too late for HAL to participate in the design and initial production of the aircraft. The design is frozen and Russian officials have confirmed that the initial batch of Su-75 fighters will be manufactured in Russia to meet the requirement of Russian forces. 

The Su-75 Checkmate Option

The TASS report was non-specific in nature, but it may have alluded to a specific project such as the development of the Su-75 stealth fighter. Russia has previously indicated that it is open to joint-venture production of the Su-75 in a partner country. Such a venture would align perfectly with India's Make in India and Atmanirbhar Bharat initiatives.

Alongside helping to plug the emerging stealth gap, local manufacture of the Su-75 in India could generate billions of dollars in export revenue, much like the BrahMos missile program and potentially the Su-30MKI modernization program.

India's manufacture of the Su-75 would in no way compromise the AMCA program. The AMCA is a twin-engine medium-weight stealth fighter, whereas the Su-75 is a single-engine lightweight stealth fighter. The two serve distinct operational roles. A single-engine fighter is cheaper to acquire and operate, and the Su-75 would remain relevant to the IAF's requirements well beyond the induction of the AMCA.

India Cannot Win Tomorrow’s Wars With Yesterday’s Technologies

 

AI conceptualisation of a AI powered drone attacking a supply truck

The US currently leads the world in two critical military technologies — satellite-based low-latency internet and AI. The former gives its weapons global reach, while the latter provides unprecedented accuracy. Together, they could enable the US to maintain its military dominance across the world for decades.

In a low-key manner, the US is already flexing its Starlink-based global reach and AI-powered accuracy through the drones it is supplying to Ukraine.

Perennial Autonomy, a company founded by Eric Schmidt, former CEO of Google, has developed two drones that have put Russian forces on the back foot — the Merops Surveyor interceptor drone and the Hornet kamikaze drone. The Surveyor interceptor uses AI to bring down Russian drones, while the Hornet drone uses both Starlink and AI to wreak havoc on Russia's ability to supply its troops along the front line.

Merops AS-3 Surveyor

The Merops AS-3 Surveyor is a mobile, truck-portable counter-drone system comprising:

1. Radar and electro-optical sensors for detection and tracking
2. A ground control/command station
3. Pneumatic or mobile launch platforms
4. A fleet of Surveyor interceptor drones

The fixed-wing Surveyor interceptor was first combat-tested in Ukraine around June 2024. By late 2025, it had reportedly achieved over 1,900 intercepts. In some sectors, it is claimed to have brought down roughly 40% of Russian Geran drones. Recent reports claim 4,000 successful Russian drone interceptions.

The Surveyor is an effective interceptor on account of its greater AI-based autonomy, speed, and jam resistance. Following launch, the drone is cued and initially guided using the sensors of the Merops system. For terminal guidance, it uses onboard IR and RF sensors, as well as AI-based machine vision. It can home in on targets even when SATNAV and communication signals are jammed.

AI-based machine vision and the ability to fuse inputs from IR and RF sensors are key to the success of the Surveyor.

With its maximum speed of 280 km/h, the drone outpaces Russian Gerans.

Hornet Strike Drone

The Hornet drone can be credited with bringing the Russian offensive in Donbas to a crawl along the line of contact, and even to a complete halt in some sectors. Ukraine is also using the drone to strangulate Russia's ability to supply Crimea.

As with the Surveyor, the Hornet's success can largely be attributed to its AI-powered ability to operate effectively in the absence of SATNAV and communications.

We covered the capabilities of the Merops Surveyor and Hornet drones in an earlier post.

AI-Based Machine Vision

So far, SATNAV has been the gold standard in the precision guidance of drones, missiles, and rockets. AI-powered machine-vision-based navigation outperforms SATNAV in accuracy. More importantly, it is completely immune to electronic warfare.

However, machine vision can be spoofed — for example, by using paint schemes that make optical recognition challenging.

With increased onboard processing power, it will become difficult, perhaps impossible, to spoof AI-powered machine vision.

Global Reach

The ability to control drones and missiles capable of precision guidance globally requires a Starlink-like network. Currently, there is no alternative to Starlink.

Outplaying Emerging Powers

In the days ahead, many nations, including India, will build weapons with AI-powered machine vision. However, doing so without acquiring matching semiconductor fabrication and design capability would not allow them to exercise sovereignty over their own weapons.

Semiconductor fabrication and design technologies are likely to be tightly controlled in order to prevent challenges to US military dominance.

As an analogy, a nation with nuclear weapons technology does not share it with a nation that lacks the technology. Indeed, nations that possess nuclear weapons do their best to prevent the "have-nots" from acquiring weapons-grade fissile material.

The ability to manufacture fissile material, a key enabling technology for nuclear weapons, is tightly controlled.

Similarly, robust space-launch capability, as well as the semiconductor fabrication and design capability needed to deploy a Starlink analogue or facilitate advanced machine vision, will be tightly controlled.

The technological barriers to acquiring these capabilities are formidable. The hurdles span multiple years — perhaps multiple decades — and are rooted in physics, engineering complexity, supply chains, and capital intensity.

A low-latency global or regional broadband constellation requires thousands of satellites (Starlink has over 10,000) in low Earth orbit (LEO, ~550 km altitude), inter-satellite laser links, high-volume satellite manufacturing, and millions of user terminals with electronically steered phased-array antennas.

The number of satellites required can vary based on the architecture of the network and its intended extent of coverage. However, a true Starlink analogue would require the development of a reusable launcher.

China, the EU, and Russia have all embarked on deploying Starlink analogues, but all three have so far made limited progress. Countries like India are unlikely to be in a position to acquire such a capability over the next decade.

User Terminals

Low-latency networks use terminals featuring custom ASICs and advanced RF front-end modules (e.g., BiCMOS technology) for phased-array antennas that track fast-moving LEO satellites.

Starlink has already deployed millions of such terminals. STMicroelectronics has shipped over 5 billion RF chips for the terminals, with daily rates exceeding 5 million.

Network satellites use radiation-hardened electronics, onboard processors, and laser comms chips that require specialized semiconductor fabs, which in turn require decades of ecosystem investment.

AI-Powered Machine Vision

Effective (high-accuracy, low-latency) machine vision in drones and cruise missiles requires real-time object detection, tracking, terrain classification, sensor fusion, and autonomous navigation capability under severe size, weight, power, and cost constraints, harsh operating environments, and contested electromagnetic conditions.

Hardware-wise, machine vision relies on high-performance AI accelerators (NPUs, custom ASICs, or optimized GPUs/FPGAs) that must deliver tens to hundreds of TOPS (trillions of operations per second) for neural networks such as CNNs or lightweight transformers (e.g., YOLO variants).

Such hardware would require leading-edge nodes (7 nm, 5 nm, 3 nm, or below) for the density, speed, and energy efficiency needed to run complex models onboard without excessive power draw.

Only a handful of fabs worldwide — primarily TSMC in Taiwan, with limited capacity from Samsung and Intel — can produce these at scale and yield.

The US itself faces geopolitical and supply-chain vulnerabilities. However, it is likely working on a plan to eventually eliminate them.

Conclusion

As things stand, the US appears uniquely positioned in combining reusable launch capability with access to semiconductor fabrication and design ecosystems that facilitate global reach and high-precision strikes by drones and cruise missiles.

In the discussion above, we confined ourselves largely to drones and cruise missiles. AI and secure global communication have applications in other weapon systems as well — space-based weapons, for example.

It is time for India to take a hard look at its quest for self-reliance in weapon manufacturing. Hopefully, we are not focusing on acquiring sunset technologies, and our efforts to acquire semiconductor fabrication and design technologies will be pursued vigorously.